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With the advent of DNA evidence, statisticians are asked to compute matching probablities to determine the likelihood that a suspect is the person whose DNA was found at the crime scene. The results can be overwhelming but even a statistician with expertise in DNA matching can be tripped up by clever high priced lawyers. Such was the case when Bruce Weir testified on national television in the O. J. Simpson case.
Joe Gastwirth has contributed to the statistical research applied to legal problems over the past 20 years at least and he has published a book on the subject. In this volume, he compiles a number of case stories and statistical issues in legal cases told by many very capable statisticians including Alan Izenman, Jay Kadane, Bruce Weir, Seymour Geisser, Don Rubin, Joe Gastwirth himself,David Pollard and Scott Zeger. These are all fascinating tales that will especially be appreciated by lawyers and statisticians. But this is also worthwhile reading for the general public. Read the preface, where Gastwirth gives you a synopsis of these articles.
One of my favorites is the article by Seymour Geisser who tells a sad tale about how statistical issues relating to problems in the analysis of DNA evidence is covered up by the FBI. This is taken to the extent of influencing the refereeing process for journal publications, a shocking tale!
Unfortunately even though DNA evidence can be as conclusive as a fingerprint, human error in processing the evidence can create doubt about the matching process or even pursuade a jury that evidence was planted or a defendant frame. Such things are possible and defense lawyers now exist who are up to the task of creating such doubt as was done masterfully by Johnny Cochran and Barry Scheck in the O.J. trial.
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General George Marshall, who directed America's war effort, considered Stilwell his best corps commander before the war. But Stilwell never commanded US formations in Europe, where he would have excelled. Reading of his personal habits and professional preparation, one is reminded of Erwin Rommel. Had Stilwell been at Kasserine Pass, things might have turned out very differently than they did.
Stilwell never got to WWII Europe because he was also the US Army's best Orientalist at a time when his skills were needed to train the Chinese Army to fight the murderous Japanese invaders. Stilwell had a high regard for the Chinese soldier as fighting material; but his fate was to work at the highest levels, with Chiang Kai-shek and Company, and his impatience and refusal to accept the second-rate made for tough sledding during the Kuomintang era of corruption, ineptitude, and clashing cultures (Chinese and other powers') that set the stage for the Communist takeover following WWII. At every turn, Stilwell's attempts to get the Chinese Army on its feet were frustrated by Chiang's double-dealing. There were cultural reasons for this-the identical problem would later frustrate US efforts in Vietnam-but it seems an unusually cruel fate for one of Stilwell's disposition to have to deal with it.
Just as devilish, for other reasons, were his allies. Stilwell detested the British, and Tuchman seems unimpressed by them, also. "No nation has ever produced a military history of such verbal nobility as the British. Retreat or advance, win or lose, blunder or bravery, murderous folly or unyielding resolution, all emerge clothed in dignity and touched with glory. Every engagement is gallant, every battle a decisive action, every campaign produces generalship hailed as the most brilliant of the war. Other nations attempt but never quite achieve the same self-esteem. It was not by might but by the power of her self-image that Britain in her century dominated the world."
Americans and Brits of course had to work together in the CBI, and friction was continuous, as much because of personal pique as differing institutional approaches to leadership. "Mountbatten took an intense interest in publicity, especially his own. When he visited the troops he liked to give an impression of 'spontaneous vitality.' He would drive up in his jeep, vault nimbly, jump agilely onto a packing case carefully placed in advance, and deliver 'an absolutely first class and apparently impromptu speech-simple, direct and genuinely inspiring. The men loved it.'"
Stilwell did things differently. A direct, plainspoken man, spartan of personal habit and shunning many of the perquisites of position, he "liked to talk to the men unrecognized, which frequently occurred. Once riding in a jeep wearing his long-visored Chinese soldier's cap like a hunter's and holding a carbine across his knees, he passed a group of Merrill's Marauders, of whom on growled, 'Christ, a goddamn duck hunter.' A GI in an engineer unit was more sympathetic. 'Look at that poor old man. Some draft boards will do anything.'
From Stilwell's diaries Tuchman recreates the US Army of the period. On a trip to Washington, Stilwell wrote that he was surrounded "by clerks rushing in and out of swinging doors, people with papers rushing after other people with papers, groups in corners whispering in huddles, everybody jumping up just as you start to talk, buzzers ringing, telephones ringing, rooms crowded, clerks banging away at typewriters. 'Give me ten copies of this AT ONCE.' 'Get that secret file out of the safe.' Everybody furiously smoking cigarettes, everybody passing you on to someone else. Someone with a loud voice and a mean look out to appear and yell 'HALT! You crazy bastards. SILENCE! You imitation ants. Now half of you get out of town and the other half sit down and don't move for one hour.' Then they could burn up all the papers and start fresh."
There is plenty to admire in this man. He was decades ahead of his time in his approach to physical conditioning and preparation. His career largely represents a bright man with exemplary self-discipline and dedication. For all his excellence, he did have one major professional defect: he did not "play the game" in ratings and awards, so that his subordinates didn't get as good ratings or as many medals as their peers in other units. This cost them promotions and professional chances later on. Stilwell himself actually turned down medals and never sought promotion, but few ordinary mortals are made of such stern stuff. He owed it to his men to do right by them according to the system they all served.
But he was an extraordinary man during extraordinary times. It's our good fortune that his biographer was the extraordinary Barbara Tuchman. This book should be on the reading lists of professional historians and military men alike, and of anyone who wants to learn something of Chinese culture.
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