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A scientist builds a time machine. Why? Because of mere scientific curiosity. I know that's not enough for the modern fans, but putting the book in its historical contet, we go back to a time where the advancements of science were increasing every day, each scientific field being researched. Of course, Time wasn't the exception.
The time machine leads the scientist and the reader to a dark, bleak future, where the enthusiasm for knowledge has been exchanged by the pleasures of a dull, easy life withou work or preocupations, an utopia for a small group called the Eloi.
But underneath their feet live the Morlocks, a group of cave men who toil for the Eloi and are paid with their meat, for they are cannibals.
Wells surely wasn' an optimist regarding the future of our earth, for the time traveller ends his dark journey at the end of earth's existence, no longer inhabitted by men but by gigantic creatures such as crabs and butterflies.
Most readers might complain about the lack of characterization, thence my four stars, the weakness of the plot, nowadays very common,and even the lack of scientifical explanations, that makes today's science fiction novels so wonderfully complex. but this was a classic among the classics, that gave birth to so many books... A lot of people owing a lot to H. G. Wells, who never got anything for his unique book.
I especially recommend this book for those of us with short attention spans - it's only 140 pages (and that's the large print version). But don't get the wrong idea, this book still has more depth and creativity than most 500 page books i've read and is a great read, even compared with today's science fiction standards.
This book has to be considered a classic considering it spawned a whole genre of time traveling books, movies, and tv shows whcih imitated it. Get a hold of a copy and read it today!
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"Like the Hindu god Shiva, they are both regenerative and destructive," explain consultants Larry Downes and Chunka Mui in their highly compelling digital strategy manual, "Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance" (1998 Harvard Business School Press). The book is chock full of case studies of companies who are either riding the Internet wave to fortune and fame - or have been sidelined and marginalised.
The new forces of our age are globalisation, digitisation and deregulation. Traditional corporate strategies are getting replaced by digital strategies, which are more dynamic, intuitive, and participatory.
The Internet (along with its intra-organisational manifestation, the Intranet) has firmly occupied centre stage in the global marketspace thanks to three fundamental laws: Moore's law, Metcalfe's law, and Coase's law. Moore's law maintains that processing power doubles every 18 months while costs hold constant. According to Metcalfe's law, the utility of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users.
And economist Ronald Coase observes that as markets become more efficient, there is an increasing organisational trend towards downsizing, outsourcing, and decentralisation ("The Law of Diminishing Firms"). Killer apps are now the result of these three principles operating together in cyberspace. To these three laws, the authors add one more: the Law of Disruption, accounting for the disruption caused by exponentially-changing technology on incrementally-changing social systems.
The Internet is taking every advantage of every new advance in communications, interface design, computer architecture and information sharing software via a combination of Moore's and Metcalfe's laws. The explosive growth of the multimedia Internet is redefining business-to-consumer and business-to-business services across the globe; for instance, it enables suppliers and distributors - and even prospective mates - to directly find one another across international borders, sidestepping many intermediaries.
"The Web is currently tearing apart the financial services and telecom industries, among others, inspiring civil wars there much as the steam engine did years ago," the authors explain.
Via killer apps, cutting edge companies in the Internet age are transforming their businesses from producers of commodity goods to providers of sophisticated services. Companies like Dell Computers, Cisco Systems, Federal Express, Charles Schwab and Amazon.com are successfully re-aligning relationships with and among consumers via Internet technologies and building unprecedented brand loyalty in cyberspace.
The Web is creating "shock waves in information components of every industry," so much so that digital technologies are not just enablers of change, but disrupters of current operating models.
Digital age strategies need not be the preserve only of IT companies - Nike, for instance, is progressively divorcing itself from production, distribution, advertising, and even design; most of these operations are being outsourced. "We decided we're a sports company, not just a shoe company," CEO Phil Knight has remarked. "What Nike has kept for itself is brand management, the relentless development of the Nike world view, the Nike lifestyle, and the Nike experience," the authors explain.
To be able to develop digital strategies, a company must improve its ability to spot, internalise, shape and exploit killer apps, the authors claim. Organisations have to be become more nimble, open, fun, and take on a new incarnation.
Traditional organisations need to focus on three key areas of change for digital strategy in the network age: re-shaping the organisational environment, building new connections with business partners and customers, and re-defining their core structure and strategy.
Re-shaping the business environment can take place via features like mass customisation, user empowerment, and online communities. For instance, Federal Express is reaping tens of millions of dollars of savings in customer service costs thanks to enhanced features on its Web site such as letting customers print their own airbills, complete with bar code.
Experimenting with digital strategies may even involve "cannibalisation" of one's own products and services, a fear shared by many print publications initially venturing online. The key, the authors claim, is to use the online channel as an entry point for higher-value services, such as searchable and customisable financial data feeds. Otherwise, a competitor may cannibalise your products. "Jumpstart new markets with the credibility and goodwill you already have," the authors urge.
Notable success stories in this regard include U.S. electronics parts distributor Marshall Industries, which seemingly cannibalised its own business by setting up a Web site which put its suppliers and buyers directly in touch with one another. But in effect, it created a new global channel - it now receives 2,000 inquiries a day from 52 countries via its Web site. Thus inspired, Marshall Industries is now getting into the Extranet services business for the electronics industry.
Examples of successful online personalisation services include PointCast, the Wall Street Journal's Personal Journal, Intuit's Quicken, and Hallmark Greeting Cards' online reminder service for special anniversaries.
"The closer you can get to activities about which the community feels passionate, the greater the potential value you can capture," the authors claim (much on the lines of John Hagel and Arthur Armstrong's earlier bestseller, "Net Gain"). Sites like PlumbNet and Barter Systems are tapping into "Do It Yourself" trends - the growing desire for people to take charge of activities themselves and save money.
Successful examples of virtual community building include online gaming, ESPN SportsZone's fantasy leagues, online dating services, and America Online's People Connection service and Buddy Lists. "Brand management in cyberspace requires real engagement with customers," the authors say. Customer service is being replaced by "customer intimacy."
Forming partnerships and building new organisational connections are key in the digital age. These can cover the full gamut from strategic alliances and joint ventures to equity stakes and outright ownership - well exemplified by Microsoft's buying out of WebTV, and its 25 percent stake in cable TV giant ComCast.
Managing innovation as portfolio management using risk analysis calls for new skills, leadership, and will, the authors explain. For instance, while it was in the era of first generation spreadsheets, Lotus spun off a separate company called Iris to develop the Notes product.
Another source of new ideas and fresh inspiration can come from hiring young people, and tapping into the skillsets and aptitudes of children (probably better addressed in other books like "Growing Up Digital" by Dan Tapscott).
Acquiring the killer app mindset requires a strong degree of technology alignment. "Organisations cannot unleash killer apps until they can harness their own business and technology expertise," the authors say.
For this, organisations need to invest in IT and skillset-building. This can be aided by fostering an e-mail culture and reliable tools for document sharing and collaboration. "It becomes impossible to determine where the business stops and the technology starts," the authors explain, citing examples like Amazon.com and Cisco.
Companies also need to constantly innovate. The online mall MCI Marketplace died a slow death because it became stale; cybermalls will need to continually add new features and create new shopping experiences on the Web.
"The organisation with the healthiest environment for identifying, nurturing and redefining killer apps, whether their own or those invented by others (perhaps for entirely different purposes), is the organisation that will translate its digital strategy into market dominance," the authors conclude.
In sum, this is a conceptually breathtaking overview of the context within which the Web paradigm is changing business the way we know it. An online companion and an online discussion group would have helped extend the shelf-life of this book.
The co-authors divide their book into three parts: Digital Strategy, Designing the Killer App, and Unleashing the Killer App. In Part I, there is a brief discussion of one "killer app" in the Middle Ages, the stirrup, which added mounted cavalry to the battle equation. The "lowly stirrup" played a singular role in rearranging the political, social, and economic structure of medieval Europe.
In The Lever of Riches, Joel Mokyr identifies countless other "killer apps" throughout history such as paved streets and sewerage disposal; the lever, wedge, and screw; the heavy plow and three-field system; the weight-driven mechanical clock; spectacles; the printing press; the steam engine; the telegraph; the bicycle; ...each of which also had a truly profound impact.
To repeat, Larry Downes & Chunka Mui concern themselves with the technology of transforming information into digital form. Thus in Part I, they examine the "killer app", explain what they call "the new economics", and then shift their attention to the nature of a digital strategy. They dully acknowledge the disruptive power of "killer apps" which can suddenly destroy the equilibrium of what appeared to be stable systems of commerce and government. For them, business change now originates with digital technology; more specifically, with "killer apps." Strategies are needed to manage (to the extent possible) their impact to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. These strategies must accommodate three new forces: digitization, globalization, and deregulation. The "dirty little secret" to which Gary Hamel has referred is that the strategy industry "doesn't have any theory of strategy creation." The success of any digital strategy may well be the result of what Hamel calls "lucky foresight." Downes & Mui seem to agree with Hamel while offering, in Part II, what they refer to as "a few rules of thumb." They suggest three stages of "killer app" design and carefully explain each. They identify 12 specific principles on which to base the design process. In Part III, they shift their attention to "Unleashing the Killer App" and correctly stress the importance of communication, one which "speaks with the language of ideas, scenarios, options, and what-ifs."
In Chapter 7, the reader's attention is directed to two major corporations, McDonald's and VEBA AG, which illustrate digital strategy in practice. These are, in effect, mini-case studies. It is important to point out, however, that effective digital strategies are not the sole province of major corporations such as these. A "killer app" can quickly increase or reduce the size of any company. Consider the fact that a single dry goods store in Kemmerer (Wyoming) can become the J.C. Penney Company which, in turn, now struggles (with mixed results) to compete successfully with a company whose own history can be traced back to the Walton 5&10 in Bentonville (Arkansas). Downes & Mui assert that "Developing digital strategy...requires components of both problem-pull and technology-push...operating together in a well-functioning organization [in which] the process becomes not only circular but indistinguishable...in a pragmatic, indeed opportunistic, response to the new digital environment."
In the final chapter of their brilliant analysis, Downes & Mui suggest that cyberspace "is fueled by free computing power and free bandwidth...and free software." Consequently, "the social conditions that resulted are raw, and the nature of the business climate, by necessity, less developed." As with The Golden Rule dry goods store (in 1902) and then the Walton 5&10 (in 1950), today's companies must seek out new areas of opportunity and start doing business there. "Those who make the transformation by developing a digital strategy are choosing to engage the frontier on its own terms, just as their counterparts from Europe did in settling the New World."
Larry Downes & Chunka Mui have outlined the process of digital strategy, explained the twelve design principles, and described the experiences of organizations that are transforming themselves so that they can unleash "killer apps." Which companies will conquer the "frontier", whatever and wherever it may be? Which companies will not? In the Digital Marketplace, we won't have to wait very long for the answers. Probably in what seems to be about five minutes. Those who share my high regard for this book are urged to read Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point.
How this could happen? The authors explained in the first chapter that, in a new networked environment, joined Moore's law -every 18 months, processing power doubles while cost holds constant- and Metcalfe's law -the utility of a network equals the square of the number of its users- are dropping exponentially the transaction costs. As transaction costs discovered in the 30's by the economist Ronald Coase are defining the size of the organizations, we can easily understand the increase of mergers, downsizing and outsourcing to keep industrial firms competitive to face new appearing competitors using all the potential of the technology.
In the industrial age, sustainable competitive advantage required leverage over at least one of the Michael Porter's "Five Forces" customers, suppliers, competitors, new entrants, and substitutes. In the digital age, surrounding these five forces are three new forces: digitization, globalization, and deregulation giving harder time to achieve competitive advantage. The value chain is under extreme pressure and is asking to implement a new digital strategy. Such strategy must be constantly rethought and shared by the total organization. Strategy time frame is shrinking from three, five years to 18 months and well thought plans are replaced by moving projects and experiments to test new ideas.
In the second chapter the authors are asking us to design our own killer apps to avoid somebody else to do it. A killer app is a new good or service that establishes an entirely new category not in a scheme of an incremental change but in discontinuity and in big leaps.
Three categories of killer apps are proposed, each one including four killer apps from the external of the organization to networks and to the internal, from the customers to your partners and to your employees.
External -reshaping the landscape- asked to outsource to the customer to integrate the customer in your production process, to cannibalize your market before somebody else is doing it, to treat each customer as a market segment of one for personalization - customization, and to create communities of value for enlarging customer experience.
Networks -building new connections- asked to replace rude interfaces with learning interfaces to gain mutual trust, to ensure continuity for the customer not for yourself to transfer him the advantages of new technology applications, to give away as much information as you can to add value to your information assets, and to structure any transaction as a joint-venture to build long-term relationships.
Internal -redefining the interior- asked to treat your assets as liabilities to concentrate on your information assets; to destroy your value chain to make sure to stay competitive, to manage innovation as a portfolio of options to make sure to be at the forefront of technology, and to hire the children to keep freshness of mind.
In the third chapter the authors are giving us advises from their own experience to unleash the killer app.
To make sure that digital strategy will be implemented the creation of a digital strategy team is recommended with a total involvement of senior managers. A technology radar, a technology pipeline and technical partnerships are other ideas to introduce in the organization to create the necessary environment to surf on the wave of new technologies. Last message from the authors, just do it, means experiment your ideas and your killer app will be coming out.
This book is a real value for CEOs who want to compete in the cyberspace the new marketspace of our common future. Moving to the New Economy is not easy, but we have there, with this book a base to work on the transformation that need our industrial organizations.
Like many of Shaw's plays, it is built around his pet ideas -- here (in a simple form) the notion that class distinctions are not genuine and could be overcome through education. Unlike some of Shaw's plays which read like socialist tracts, this one has very human characters who keep your interest throughout (in contrast to "Major Barabara" which was a rather tedious movie).
For me, Wendy Hiller make a marvelous Eliza Doolittle. Although Leslie Howard is very good (and presumably what Shaw had in mind), it is hard to forget the bluster Rex Harrison -- a great actor himself -- brought to the role of Professor Higgins. Hiller brings a wonderful dignity and pathos to the role of Eliza Doolittle. The rest of the cast is very good and the sets are very authentically set in Edwardian England.
This is definite buy if you like Shaw, theatre in general, good movies from the 30s, or want to see a richer version of "My Fair Lady."
The cast is excellent. Leslie Howard is perfect as Henry Higgins, the professor of dialects who transforms a flower girl into a lady. And Wendy Hiller is sensational as Eliza Doolittle. There's a certain regal freshness and her British authenticity comes across beautifully. Even though "the rain in Spain" is spoken, rather than sung, it still keeps the same quality. And there is music throughout as background, lively original music created especially for the film. The supporting cast was excellent too. I particularly loved the performance by Wilfrid Larson as Eliza's father. The film moved fast and kept me totally captivated. The costumes were wonderful and the timing for the comedic moments perfect. I found myself laughing out loud in places and smiling to myself throughout. Certainly, this film has stood the test of time and even though it will always be compared to the musical we all know and love, I must say that Pygmalion can definitely stand on its own. Give yourself a treat and check it out. Highly recommended.
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A mysterious pirate shows up at an inn owned by Jim Hawkin's mother. The pirate is killed by a gang of rogues, but Jim finds a treasure map belonging to the pirate. Jim then embarks on a journey to far away island to find the treasure. Of course, nobody can be trusted - especially the cook, Long John Silver. With his peg leg and parrot, Silver is the stereotypical pirate. Once the island is reached, sides are chosen - the mutinous pirates against the ship's crew. Jim goes on a journey within a journey on the island, going from one side to another, as the treasure is hunted for.
Everyone should read this book at some point. It's especially good for young boys, due to the fact that the main character (Jim) is a young boy. It's well crafted, and easy to read. And it's hard to put down once you get going. What else can you ask for?
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Let's just say it took a long time to get into the book. Sparks's writing style is extremely boring containing very simple language. If you want an author who is easy to read and whose writing is not too filled with substance, then he is yours! I prefer a book with good use of language and vocabulary, good flow, substance - just a good book! Sparks's novels, in my opinion, are just too amateur.
Anyway, once I got into the book after wanting to quit several times, it actually got good with the suspense. This is not typical of Sparks and I did finally start enjoying it. Yes, it did take that same 'ole predictable stance, however, I still caught myself getting into it and wanting to know what was going to happen next!
If you've already got a stack of good books awaiting you, by all means don't read "The Guardian" now. If you are bored and want something to read, then do read this one, just know it will get better!
Sparks is well-known for writing love stories that have a degree of realism but also pushes the envelop of mushiness. In THE GUARDIAN, Sparks writes a story of the affections between a man and a woman. As common in his other novels, we witness several emotional triangles. Sparks is quite skilled in painting a picture with words that illustrates the emotional trauma when a third party is thrown into an emotional tie between two others. What makes THE GUARDIAN different is the element of suspense and peril in which the major and minor characters (including a dog) are placed in life threatening situations.
More than any other other of his novels, THE GUARDIAN illustrates Sparks' talent for writing. He develops several layers of emotional complexity, without being incoherent, and retaining the reader's interest. In many respects, THE GUARDIAN maintains the same level of complexity as Raymond Chandler's THE BIG SLEEP. However, Sparks is able to do a much better job than Chandler in keeping the reader focused. In many ways, it is quite amazing that Sparks was able to hold this storyline together.
Frankly, I think that THE GUARDIAN is Sparks' best work.
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note: i am currently reading christopher's next book called "a trip to the stars" which confirms for me that he is the umberto eco of fantasy--that should be a good indicator of his level of erudition, and the degree to which he uses history and cultural mythology to add dimensions to his books.
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I breezed through the book the first night I bought it, bought two of his products soon thereafter (one product to firm around the eyes and another to firm the face), and didn't bother with the nutritional supplements (I thought the list was too long and there was no way I was going to figure out which ones were more helpful and the right amount of each to take, and when to take them throughout the day). Instead of rigorously following the diet, I just loosely tried to take his advice, drinking more water so I don't dry up and look like a prune, eating more fruit and veggies, eating more fish (especially salmon), and less red meat (though still stopping in McDonalds every now and then).
Two weeks later I was out with a fellow I had dated a few times and he said I looked particularly attractive that evening. I told him I had had my teeth whitened. He said, no, it's not that, it's my skin, something is beautiful and different about it, he didn't know what. Then I told him I had been trying something new and that it must work, though he was the first person to say anything. The following weekend, my mother told me I looked nice, contented - perhaps it was something else? Last week I took two days off from work and the first day a guy flirted with me in the bookstore and gave me his business card, then the next day I was hanging out in the park and a guy introduced himself to me and kept hanging around me 'til I made it clear I was going my own way, without him. That kind of attention in two days hadn't happened in a long time.
I'm not sure that I see a difference as quickly as 10 minutes, but I would lean toward saying yes, it works quickly. And even if it didn't, it's well worth reading the book and trying some of the recommendations.
P.S. Saw the author on public television tonight and he said which 4 supplements are more important to take, so I'll try those soon (vitamins C and E, DMAE, and alpha lipoic acid), though I won't take them on a schedule as he suggested, but will instead be more random, maybe I'll take them all before work.
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The play is very short at 72 pages. I'm not going to divulge the plot but I will say that I found the play to be average. I will also say I'm not a big fan of reading plays, since they are usually written in a form to be performed, not read as literature. I also fault Ibsen with writing a play that fails to show the consequences of his characters actions. When Nora changes and leaves at the end, we get no information on what happens to her children, who have now been officially abandoned by their mother. In this way, Ibsen's play can be seen as a precursor to today's problems, where both men and women duck out of the family life. While this may be "liberating" to the woman (or the man, for that matter), it doesn't bode well for the kids. Maybe Ibsen could have written a sequel showing the kids growing up without a mother and getting hooked on liquor, or getting pregnant at age thirteen.
This play is most likely a big hit in the feminist cliques and the "find yourself" crowd. For me, I'd have rather read something else. It still had some good points, though. The dialogue at times was pretty snappy, and I kept picturing actresses that might play Nora as I read through the play. Ibsen is also certainly adept at characterization and pacing. Overall, average.
The play raises questions about female self-sacrifice in a male-dominated world. Nora is a "wife and child" to Torvald Helmer, and nothing more. She is his doll, a plaything on display to the world, of little intellectual value and even less utility in his life. Thus it is logical for Helmer to act so shockingly upon his discovery that Nora has managed financial affairs (typically a family responsibility reserved for the patriarch) without so much as his consent or knowledge. What, then, is the play saying about women by allowing Nora to act alone and independently, all the while allowing her to achieve little success in doing so?
Such an apparent doubt by the playwright of the abilities of women is quickly redeemed by Nora's sudden mental fruition, as though she, in the course of a day or so, accomplishes the amount of growing up to which most persons devote years and years. She has developed the intuition and motivation to leave behind everything she has lived for during she and Helmer's eight years of marriage in exchange for an independent life and the much-sought virtue of independent thought. Nora suddenly wishes to be alone in the world, responsible for only her own well-being and success or failure. She is breaking free of her crutches (Helmer, her deceased father, the ill-obtained finances from Krogstad) and is now appetent to walk tall and proud.
Through the marital madness of Helmer and Nora, Ibsen is questioning the roles of both husband and wife, and what happens when one person dominates such a relationship in a manner that is demeaning to the other, regardless of whether such degradation is carried out in a conscious, intended frame of mind. Ibsen is truly a master playwright, and his play A Doll's House is truly a masterpiece.
The author himself said that this play was about human rights, not women's rights. While I believe this to be true, I still have no problems understanding why the female rights groups says that "A dolls house" is about women's rights. Whilst this play was written over a hundred years ago, many of the issues about women discussed in "A dolls house" are still applicable today. I think Nora is a *great* role model for a woman of the new millennium!
If you, like me, had to read this as a part of your college literature requirements, give it another try! It is a wonderful book.
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And while the book does provide some of that, the valuable information is embedded in writing that is overly self-centered if not egomaniacal.
I'd like to point out that I REALLY wanted to love this book. But I didn't.
Taleb writes about interesting ways in which people do not understand randomness but he does it in a way which is unnecessarily insulting and condescending.
Even worse, I find him hypocritical. He spends a lot of energy talking about the value of being able to change one's mind, as well as the value of large sample sizes in probability-based decision making. But then he describes how far out of his way he goes to avoid information (which might cause him to change his mind or which would increase his sample size.) Further he implies that anyone who takes in certain information, like almost any form of news broadcast, must be an idiot and lives in a world of self-delusion.
Taleb writes like a smart but anti-social and holier-than-thou trader. He writes some very useful stuff about randomness and its misapplication in modern thinking. But then he goes on psychological tangents which are nothing more than trying (and failing) to find a mathematical basis on which to defend his personality foibles (flaws?).
He over-generalizes about trading in a style which he does not employ, i.e. selling premium or making bets based on past occurrences. He writes as if his way is the only way that makes sense, and implies that in the long run it is only because of randomness that anyone who does not trade the same way he does could be successful. ("Ergoditic" is definitely the best word in the book....)
Taleb gets very close to interesting discussions of a non-mathematical nature as well, such as the level of emotion involved with success or failure, as well as some interesting historical information. But he lessens the effect of the good writing by then telling us how all this fits into how he lives his life, using as many obscure references as possible, in an ongoing attempt to justify (to the reader or to himself?) the lifestyle he has created for himself. For example, he uses the above discussion to explain why he does not like to look at his own trading profit or loss statements. And he writes it in a way that shows he expects us to think he's brilliant or heroic for having such discipline. Very silly stuff....
Taleb describes his hero worship (of a philosopher named Popper) and it becomes clear that at least a partial goal of this book is to get the reader to revere (or emulate) Taleb the way he reveres (and tries to emulate) Popper. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way.
Overall I found the probability discussion interesting, but not worth the tedium of having to listen as if the reader is Taleb's (badly needed) therapist.
Luckily for Taleb, he says directly in the book that he will ignore all reviews. I think you should be able to find a less tedious source for the bits of valuable information "Fooled By Randomness" provides without having to suffer the insufferable smugness of the author.
1) There is good advice on avoiding some common mistakes that lead to "blowing up", which will prove useful to inexperienced market practitioners.
2) Taleb's own (claimed) trading methodology (buying OTM options) could easily fall victim to the "black swan" problem. A regime change to persistently higher implied than actual volatility would result in extended losses for his fund (unless he is bluffing us about its methodology).
3) Taleb only focuses on cases where volatility is underpriced - but some of the best opportunities come when it is overpriced, during market panics. Yet according to what he says in the book, one should continue buying such overpriced volatility! As someone whose bread and butter trade is fading market panics, I can confirm that premium selling can be highly profitable - the trick is to sell at the right time, and to employ risk control. Just because some practitioners are incapable of this, does not invalidate the method, any more than OTM options buying is invalidated because many naive speculators buy in a panic just before the VIX is about to collapse.
4) Taleb lumps MBA and businessmen types into the "fool" category. This misses the point. 99% of business is not about risk-assessment, dazzling insight, or grand strategic thought, but about successful *execution* of obvious ideas, and hard work. How many eggheads have had great ideas, but never done anything to put them into action? There is no point knowing that a beach bar in the Bahamas might be destroyed every 10 years by a hurricane, if you aren't even capable of raising capital, employing people, or working 16 hour days getting it off the ground. Good MBAs and CEOs will in any case employ people like Taleb to assess risk for them.
5) Taleb ignores the possiblity of using praxeological analysis (i.e. taking a set of demonstrable a priori truths, then using a logical train of deduction to discover what those truths necessarily imply about reality) to avoid the survivorship bias & noise problems. E.g. you can predict the effect of supply and demand on price without having to test it in the real world. This technique has been used by Murray Rothbard in economics (which has an even greater "non-falsifiability" problem than trading), and Warren Buffett in investing. As an example, you *can* judge if a good track record is "skill" or "luck", by examining the methodology of the trader/investor. If they operated solely during a period favourable to their style, it is probably luck e.g. if they made money buying emerging market bonds from 1994-1998. If they made a bucketload trading a style that was *against* the market regime, then it is almost certainly skill e.g. someone who made good returns as a shortseller of tech stocks from 1997-2000; or someone who has successfully sold premium during market panics. Since Taleb is a follower of Popper, and a hardened quant, it should come as no surprise that he is ignorant of praxeology, but it is a huge oversight all the same.
6) Taleb's scorning of Buffett as a lucky fool is ignorant in the extreme. Buffett clearly did *not* use naive analysis of past data to make his investment decisions, or rely on luck (he did well from 1969-82, a terrible period for equities). Rather he deduced highly probably consequences from demonstrable truths about investment (i.e. firms with pricing power, high barriers to entry, and low working capital requirements are likely to perform very well), and then saw that the market was not pricing these factors efficiently. Anyone reading his writings can see this. And Buffett's approach is ironically more rigorous and less dependent on luck than Taleb's professed trading methods. To elaborate - Taleb is relying on "black swan" events happening more often than people think. Therefore EITHER a reduction in the frequency of these events, OR an increase in people's expectation of them, would be enough to invalidate Taleb's approach - clearly neither can be ruled out. Taleb thinks he is betting on black swan events occuring, whilst ignoring the possibility of the "black swan" of major regime change making his own system unprofitable. Whereas with Buffet, the laws of supply and demand, and basic investment/economics, ensure that certain business methods will *always* work better than others.
To conclude - Taleb thinks he has a great idea, but it was already well known by most experienced market practitioners (see the Market Wizards books etc where multiple traders continually bang on about rare event risk and fat tailed probability distributions). He then goes on as if this idea is the only important thing, which is clearly not the case. Finally, he critiques some people, such as Buffett, who use totally rigorous methodologies, whilst himself employing a strategy that is by no means foolproof, and relies largely on past observation (data-mining!) to form its conclusions. All I can say is that he better watch out for the black swan of long-term declining volatility over the next decade!
Finally, I would just say that I found the book enjoyable, it's just that (luckily for future my P&L) Taleb hasn't got everything worked out just yet :) Looking forward to the follow-up Nassim!
Practitioners with rigorous experience in the markets and who place importance in critical-thinking approaches will find value in the unconventional thought patterns presented in this book, and will make one think about the nature of one's past successes in the market and the biases inherent in one's methodologies to reach such success.
This is highly relevant for critical thinkers who (1) practice prudent money management rules and (2) speculate on the market.
For money management practioners, the concepts of bias exposure and the often-raised 'black swan' problem (i.e., no matter how many confirming data points you present, you can never really prove something is always right, but with only one contradicting piece of evidence, you can prove something is wrong) are central themes of the book, and increase one's awareness and ability to implement risk management methodologies to control for changing fundamental landscapes and the unexpected 'five-sigma' events (which occur more frequently than models suggest)--concepts alone that are worth more than the value of the book.
This book is also noteworthy for speculators who wish to develop an increased awareness of the nature of the 1-2% of your trades that can blow up a good chunk of one's entire equity. The mark of a mature speculator is one who learns that prevention of blow-ups can be far more valuable than an outright win. This book leads you further along that path.
From someone who lives and dies by the everyday decisions in the market, I highly recommend this book for your consideration.