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This book is a fine example of the fog and questions which surronunded the death (or disappereance) of the russian imperial family. However, as time has moved along, we now know that most of the ideas the authors suggest never occured.
That said I liked the book and felt that it gave a good treatmeant of the context within which the last Tsar and his family met their tragic end. The reader must always exercise caution about the conclusions even as you enjoy the text.
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To be fair, however, this may not be the fault of the author. This is a tough topic to treat in a book of this length, intended for a general audience. The publisher might have done better to break the topic up into separate volumes.
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I completely agree with the Finnish reviewer regarding the lack of depth in any subject and example discussed. Rescher's books on Idealism are much better -- my guess is because he is an Idealist and enjoys writing on the subject. Reading this book however I felt that the author just had to finish writing it as a business duty to his publisher.
The good news is that this is a serious book. It looks at the fundamental questions about what can be firmly said about the future. Rescher deals with philosophical concepts in epistemology and ontology, and discusses underlying principles at length.
The bad news is that Rescher never discusses any concrete examples at any length; as soon as discussion starts to get interesting, it is time to take a new viewpoint. There are plenty of interesting topics which could have been discussed at more length, weather or the stock market, but one page is maximum Rescher dwells on any one topic. John Casti's book "Searching for certainty" is much better in this respect (but the book is on prediction in science only). Business predictions are much better discussed by Schnaars in "Megamistakes".
Rescher is one the co-inventors of the Delphi-method (with Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey) but his discussion of the method is a dissapointment. It is very cursory, and their is a strong pet-theory bias: a 1960 Delphi study about the world in year 2000 includes, among others, predictions such as: -world population 5.1 billion -ocean farming -fusion energy -minerals extracted from oceans -regional weather control -manufacturing in the Moon -men will have landed on Mars -global ballistic transport on Earth -effective anti-missile defence -correction of hereditary defects by molecular engineering
Rescher's analysis is that "the accuracy and utility of that particular study still looks quite respectable".
Rescher has the annoying habit of using overly simplistic examples which diminish the value of his otherwise interesting discussions on fundamental principles (a philosphical educational method ?) e.g. Who will the president of the United States in 2100 ? Will there be more than three letters "e" on the front page of the Wall Street Journal tomorrow ?
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Apparent discrepancies are common. For example, we are not given any explanation why a UVF man was involved in a UDA attack. Similarly although the murder of Ian Catney was claimed by the UVF, the author goes on to say other murders were planned by the UDA and Brian Nelson, as if the two were the same. Unsubstantiated comments abound such as "there could only have been one reason why McKee was murdered and that was because he was a Catholic", when presumably there could be many reasons, although none are discussed or discounted. The key most controversial assertion that Margaret Thatcher was completely aware of and sanctioned organised, regular State murders is based on the "fact" that there was a reporting line of committees to one she chaired. This is unconvincing and insufficient for such an important and crucial claim. In the end, this book, while interesting, and showing some flashes of insight, can only be viewed a good story without much more detail and evidence. As such it compares very badly with the meticulous work of authors such as Martin Dillon and Peter Taylor.
While it is still possible that any or all of the assertions in the book could be true, what is certain is that it offers little or nothing in the way of proof, or even convincing argument that this is the case. Conclusion: case not proven, file under fiction.
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It is true that this author focuses as much on the role of management in the fall of Barings as on Nick Leeson's role in it, which is fine. It is an opinion that she substantiates somewhat persuasively throughout the book. The reader gets the sense that Nick was just an opportunist who took advantage of a glaring management weakness at Barings. (The author will not be able to persuade you, however, that Nick is just a good guy who slipped. He's scum. I think the author was too lenient with him.) But through her account of Baring Bank's mismanagement of its Futures division, the author provides a very useful lesson for senior management out there.
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I am over 100 pages into this and I am not quite sure if I have learned anything useful. It was clearly written without an objective in mind, which is evident chapter after chapter. It was comforting to see that many others share my opinion. I wish I had read these reviews before purchasing.
I skipped to the chapters on the data form wizard and database development and got list and form pages up within a few days using the Data FOrm Wizard and other development tools. It did a good job of explaining the basic idea behind ASP and how Visual Interdev works.
It does waste time covering the basics of things like menu navigation, but I did like the step-by-step through the code generated by the Data Form Wizard.
I would recommend this book to database developers making the switch to web development who need a jump-start, but not to the seasoned developer who will find the majority of introductory chapters a waste.
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I've always heard that some of the greatest stories don't come from the superstars. Sometimes, they are found in the lesser stars or the ones who had just a brief moment in the spotlight. Unfortunately, many of these players and their experiences are sacrificed for long-winded accounts of players that had been written about in excess over the years.
Don't get me wrong -- there is some interesting information here. However, I've found a number of errors in dates, statistics and references. In addition, the book seems to have been rushed to print without the benefit of thorough proofreading.
The good thing? It's fairly inexpensive. Unfortunately, you get what you pay for here.
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