This book is a little-known treasure in the philosophy of science that deserves a spot alongside the better known works of Popper, Kuhn, Lakatos, and Feyerabend, and is more practical than most of those. Herein lies the clearest, simplest, and most persuasive discussion I've ever seen on the limits of Karl Popper's view of science, along with a sound introduction to the Bayesian probability theory requiring no more than high school algebra and a little persistence.

Much of this book will strike students of classical probability theory and philosophy of science as very counter-intuitive at first, but it is so well argued and so clear that I think most readers will begin to warm up to the Bayesian view at least to some degree by the time they finish the book.

The book starts out introducing one version of the traditional "problem of induction": 'how can we be certain of a rule inferred from finite individual observations ?' We then quickly discover why the usual solutions offered don't quite work in actual theory construction in practice. Mainly, the usual solutions (generally based on the disconfirmation of hypotheses) don't address the way _auxilliary_ hypotheses help theories escape refutation, and how webs of evidence of different kinds often converge to help confirm theories.

It has been generally accepted by modern philosophers of science that useful scientific theories go well beyond the experimental data. Hence they can technically not be "proven" in a logical sense, only considered increasingly more likely as their testable predictions are validated.

The Bayesian view is not based so much on a negative attitude toward objective confirmation of theories, as on the observation that classical methods which are the guardians of total objectivity, in fact violate that ideal constantly and in arbitrary ways. The most objective methods, such as those of Fisher and Neyman and Pearson are credibly claimed to rely on personal judgement of likelihood at key points, rather than being the objective logical consequences generally assumed of them.

The Bayesian view starts off acknowledging that subjective assessment of likelihood is an important part of theory selection and construction, and makes it part of the philosophy of science. The central point is that we have degrees of belief in theories, and that these degrees of belief adhere to probability calculus.

The power of scientific reasoning then results not from some elusive objective logic of discovery but because our innate inference abilities lead observation of evidence to beliefs that follow probability calculus, and hence our sense of increasing credibility tends to reflect greater likelihood of a theory making accurate predictions. Although our inferences are not consistently Bayesian by any means, our own intuitions about what represents *correct* inductive reasoning _are_ Bayesian in nature. So when we take pains to correct our inferences based on our own standards of tenability, our subjective assessments lead us to increasingly better theories.

Our beliefs can be measured as probabilities, and probabilities can be used to confirm theories. Among other things, the Bayesian view uniquely predicts, in contrast to the classical view of Popper and statistician Fisher, that novel observations should have and do have special importance in theory construction. The authors not only introduce probability calculus in simple algebraic terms and discuss its application to philosophy of science, but they also devote considerable time to exploring specific weaknesses of alternate views, and considerable time persuasively addressing the strongest criticisms of the Bayesian approach, such as that it is "too subjective." But the Bayesian philosophy of science is actually built on a powerful theory of inference and is itself "unimpeachably objective" because of its strict rules of consistency, even though its subject matter is subjective degrees of belief.

If you've ever wondered exactly what the Bayesian approach to probability is, and what it is supposed to offer science, or you've ever been dissatisfied with the traditional answers to the problem of induction, this book will be your welcome friend for a number of evenings. It combines mathematical elegance and deftness with simple philosophical wisdom and deals convincingly with the controversial nature of its claims.

Colin Howson continues the importance of the London School of Economics in international philosophy of science with this learned overview of the Bayesian theory of scientific confirmation- that probability can be used to reasonably justify scientific theories. Reconfirming such advantages as the value of novel evidence, uniquely recognised in the Bayesian approach, and answering such criticisms as the problem of old evidence, this is the definitive work on the philosphically popular Bayesian probabalistic theory of scientific confirmation.

A classic Colin Forbes suspenser! England's top MI6 secret agent Tweed is framed for a rape and a murder he did not commit, and is forced to flee to Europe in the midst of winter. Paula Grey, his trusty assistant, and Bob Newman, international reporter-turned-secret agent stand by his pleas for innocence. Meanwhile, a British government minister called Lance Buckmaster plans to alter the balance of power in the world . . . what is the significance of the hijacking of a ship carrying a supercomputer anti-ballistic missile space defence system? Tweed seems to be the only key, and he is being hunted by the authorities across Europe. To add to this, ace sniper Marler infiltrates Buckmaster's organisation, who are also trackong Tweed, to find out the villain's true aims using any means necessary. This is a brilliant thriller with Colin Forbes's trademarks - well-researched locations, amusing narrative and plot twists galaore when you least expect them! DON'T MISS IT!

First book I ever read of Colin Forbes, and was the first book I could not put down without reading another page!

it's a helper book for everybody,that they will be learn everything about the shoes..

I'm mad for Colin McDowell who must be the patron saint of fashion information professionals! This book has got it all, great photos, shoe sketches, acurate history and even shoe fantasy. I love to use this book to show our students that mules are not a twentieth century invention by Candies. Please take heed this is not a weekend reader for it contains quite a bit of text but, it is great to refer to for research and for those of us who can't get enough information about shoes. If you are interested in shoe design please check out the Ferragamo section; pure candy for the eyes.

A very well-written and enrossing story....Morse keeps us guessing until the very end. I found the characters to be interesting and complex, the dialog entertaining, and the story itself very cleverly written. Colin Dexter is a true genius.

Another one of Colin Dexter's Inspector Morse mysteries. The main character, Inspector Morse, and his sidekick, Sergeant Lewis, tackle another murder mystery. This time of a deaf man, recently hired to work for the Foreign Examinations Board in Oxford. Everyone seems to be a suspect, but as usual Lewis' non-challant remarks and Morse's sharp mind, solve the mystery - a complex who-dunnit. I believe that this book is one of the earlier Inspector Morse mysteries, since some characteristics of Morse are not in-line with that is known so far. For example, Morse is a well educated man, with interest in classical music, Latin, history and The Times crossword puzzles. However, in one scene, Morse does not know what Darjeeling is. There are also other discrepancies: Morse drives a Lancia in this book, which I find very inappropriate, him being a snobby Enlighman. Morse's usual vintage maroon Jaguar is more in-line. Other than those little discrepancies, the book was yet another good exercise for the mind and an enjoyable read. The Oxford setting still always takes me back to those college days, when I used to roam around Oxford myself.

Unless you speak/read German, this is as good as it gets. Not only is this most comprehensive compilation of relative values of German States issues, but the other information helps with the overall history lesson. This book is an ABSOLUTE MUST for anyone at the German coin beginner/intermediate level of collecting, and I suspect it has become quite useful to the advanced collectors/dealers.

Krause Publications has brought under one cover the vast numismatic production of the German cities, states, and colonies from 1600 to date. Every serious collector of German coins needs this book. This book is a real bargain because it eliminates the need for the German coin collector to purchase Krause's regular world coin books that are now broken down into different centuries (this single volume pulls information out of the four volumes that would otherwise be required).

Here are some good points:

1. Collectors of Thalers will be pleased to see Davenport numbers incorporated in their favorite areas.

2. Numerous illustrations aid the collector in identifying unknown coins.

3. Prices appear in at least four grades for each coin.

4. Helpful sections include an "Instant Identifier" with illustrations of various coin designs specific to a particular area, and "Legend Abbreviations" which give the collector a big leg up in identifying coins based on the legends alone.

5. A decent attempt is made at listing Pattern pieces (those coin designs never officially adopted).

Here are a few areas where the book could be better:

1. Prices appear to reflect the American market for German coins which, in many cases, is substantially lower than the German market for the same coins.

2. Some of the States higher in the alphabet (Saxony, for example) seem to be lacking data on the earliest coins.

3. I'd like to see the Pattern section expanded and possibly include the numbers from Schaaf's reference book on this area.

4. Cross-references to Jaeger (the German "Guidebook") would be helpful to our friends across the big pond.

Lest I appear too critical, let me state that the positive impact of this book and the obvious time and effort that went into its production are immensely important. No other reference on German coins comes anywhere close to matching the sheer volume of information contained herein. No other single book opens up the world of German coins like this book does. Thus, whether you're a beginning or an advanced collector, this book should be an essential part of your reference library.

This book is very well thought out and put together.All the periphial sections,such as HOW TO USE THIS CATALOG,COUNTRY INDEX, FOREIGN EXCHANGE TABLE,MINT INDEX,THE COIN DENOMINATION SECTION, THE INTERNATIONAL NUMERAL SYSTEMS,THE COIN SIZE CHART,HEJIRA DATE CHART,AND THE 18TH CENTURY LEGENDS,all are informative and very helpfull.The small tidbit of information they throw in at the begining of each nation section is just enough history to make it interesting.The photos for the most part are very good and usualy show enough detail so as to make a positive determination. Throughout the book there are numerous charts for indivdual piece dating and mint mark identification.With all of this in one book, this book is surprisingly easy to use and understand.

This book is a guide excellent for the coins collector of the 18th century's coins. Well, if you are interested in World Coins that it was be mint between 1701 and 1800, to then buy a Krause WC book, especially, this book, "Standard Catalog of World Coins : Eighteenth Century, 1701-1800 (2nd Ed)". They do it differently every couple of years. Before then they used to have one massive volume covering from about 1700 to present. Later you'll have to buy both the 1801-1900 and then the 1900 to present volumes and it's a real pain to start following a listing in a country and then have to dig out the other volume when you pass 1899. Also you'll probably need the 1600-1700. So you will have a complete numismatic guide.

If you want to laugh, smile and feel good without leaving your house, buy this book. It is the best book ever written, and I promise you, you will carry it around with you to read and re-read through-out the day. Buy two, so you can cheer up a friend.

It's not often a book can make a person laugh out loud, but if there was one book that could guarantee it, it would be Steven Appleby's Encyclopedia of Personal Problems. Mr. Appleby is a creative genius. If you are a fan of Gary Larson (The Far Side), Matt Groening (Simpsons, Life in Hell), or have a warped sense of humor at all, this book is indispensable. The illustrations are brilliant, and the book is penned competeley in freehand. It's written like an encyclopedia, so you can look up a specific "personal problem", or just pop it open at random for a good laugh. I don't know if one could survive reading it cover to cover. It made my sister laugh to the point of tears after only one page. I warned you!

Hall and Lieberhave successfully entered unchartered territory with their New York Times bestseller. While parents may scoff at the notion of their kids taking time off either before or during college, the experiences of students that Hall and Lieber chronicle suggest that valuable experience and new insight can be gained from a student sabbatical.

Hall and Lieber emphasize that students must have a mapped out plan about what they want to do and what they want to gain from their experience. Taking time off is not about bumming around. There is a intellectual component to this endeavor that parents may tend to dismiss. They shouldn't.

Finally, a book that challenges the idea that all people between the ages of 18-22 should go to immediately to college without entertaining the possibility of alternative experiences that would serve them better, at least temporariliy. There is no doubt that young men and women should obtain their college degrees, according to Hall and Lieber... the question simply is when.

KUDOS!!

I have read this fine book and highly recommend it to ALL college students. Whether or not you know why you are there it can answer your questions about a year off and offer insight on how productive and riching a year can be. I'm contemplating my own year off and this book will be my bible in doing so. It offers a wide variety of activities one can do and has excellent references for those who would like to take time off. I recommend that you read this book and get a glimpse of how to live life.

Colin Chisholm's Through Yup'ik Eyes is a truly remarkable and ground-breaking work.

The subject of Mr. Chisholm's book is his mother, and his love and respect for her shine through on every single page of this hauntingly written book. The fact that he devoted several years to his quest to learn about his mother's past is itself a remarkable undertaking. What he produced as a result of his travels and studies is a compelling look at a woman who wanted desperately to go "home," but was unable to do so. What makes Through Yup'ik Eyes so truly inspiring is that Mr. Chisholm did in fact find a way to take his mother home. Through his efforts, she was posthumously reunited with her relatives after so many painful years of being away.

We live in a changing world, and not the least of the changes are the new ways we are finding to define our identities. Mr. Chisholm succeeded in returning his mother to her beloved Alaska, but he also made a big stride in offering a definition of family. Rather than painting an entire group of people with one brush, what Mr. Chisholm offers is a deeply moving picture of one woman and her relationship to her son.

A humbling, chilling, sensitive, compassionate portrayal of a love toward a mother, and the search for the identity of a silent history, is truly extracted by the author about his experience as a child of a mother whom he wants strongly to understand.

To create a story about a culture one only has glimpses of as one is growing up because of some silence or resistence that brought the parent to carry is, in and of itself, a very difficult task to bear. Colin Chisholm in blending reality and fiction into a heart-felt document, unfolds the silent stories of many children who, like his mother, were taken away during the tuberculosis and influenza epidemic that killed so many of the Yup'ik Eskimo people at the turn of the 2oth century. In one sense Colin's mother was fortunate to be able to live; whereas so many people such as my grandparents, were not -- who knew and possibly saw Mrs. Chisholm being taken away at such a tender age, never to be seen again. A sensitive topic written with respect about a culture the author only knows a little of is truly an honorable effort. I commend Mr. Chisholm in telling part of my Yup'ik history in a way that brings out the love, the struggles, and the determination to survive that Yup'ik people faced, and continue to face.

How brave and honorable it is to learn that Colin is able to track down the side of his family he doesn't know, and in a culture that is seldom recognized or heard of. The yearning for meaning about family and the love for a mother whom Colin Chisholm pursued ends up in a stronger family relationship. Colin's mother would be so proud of a son that bravely conquered family ties.

Although it is obvious that this book was written more for other physicians and workers in the mental health profession (the vocabulary is quite advanced to say the least), I found each new chapter held something in it to help me learn more about the effects of trauma and the different outcomes of a traumatic childhood. I, having Dissociative Identity Disorder (formerly known as Multiple Personality Disorder) was relieved to read that I was not different in the fact that I had been diagnosed with almost everything and have been in and out of hospitals. I've also worked with the author's staff as well as his assistant and, although I'm not quite sure of my thoughts on his view of memories, I totally agree that memories are not the point. The point is that we wouldn't have problems if life had been bliss. I highly recommend this THICK book to anyone who, if they don't have a complex vocabulary, is willing to look up words as they go. (smile)

In this landmark work, Dr. Ross challenges the field of psychiatry to make a giant leap forward in the treatment of mental illness. After 21 years of carefully listening to patients and weighing scientific evidence, he has hit on what should now be obvious: trauma causes and/or contributes to most psychiatric disorders. This is especially true for comorbid (many diagnosies) patients. Just as a single disease can produce multiple physical symptoms, unresolved trauma can generate multiple diagnosies. He describes why the single gene-single disease and biomedical reductionist models don't work for psychiatry. He also points out many flaws in logic in the DSM IV diagnosies, making specific revision suggestions. His hypothesies will pique the curiosity of many reseachers and lead to many dissertations. He concludes if trauma therapy is added to medication for many patients, outcomes will be much improved. This is a must read for the serious mental health professional.