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Although I have a military background (USMC, late 60s - early 70s), I spent my career in law enforcement. I retired a couple of years ago after almost 29 years, to include time as a "first line supervisor and commander in Patrol Operations and police tactical operations (SWAT).
I found it to be very refreshing that this book was oriented "primarily" towards the first-line supervisor level. Although the principles and concepts outlined in the book were clearly applicable toward supervisory and management positions above that first line level, the thrust of its direction was somewhat unique in the direct approach towards first line supervision.
Additionally, the use of "war stories" to demonstrate specific examples of conceptual thoughts of principle allowed the reader a glimpse of practical applications of the various principles.
It was quite strange that while this book was an easy read - easy to follow, well written, and by no means conceptually "hazy" - I found it hard to finish! And that was only because I found myself reading a section, putting the book down and mulling over what I just read (and sometimes mulling it over off-and-on for hours), going back and re-reading it, etc. before going on to the next section. As a result, it took me quite a bit longer to finish the book that I had first imagined!
This book rates an "A+" for no other reason that the author's identification of one of the key problems facing supervision AND management today: "The Three Ps" (I won't ruin the surprise for future readers by identifying them).
In fact, in my opinion, in today's area of supervision and management - as I know from first hand observation in the law enforcement field and otherwise see both in the corporate world and in the military - the "Three Ps" are THE biggest problems of leadership today. Until the cultural climate adjustments occur that effect the necessary changes in this area, I see no hope for true positive outcomes within those troubled organizations.
I particularly like the nice coverage of GARCH models that are new to me. It is a great introductory text especially for economics majors. For more advanced books and other treatments of time series consider Kennedy's fourth edition of "A Guide to Econometrics" or the suggestion from reviewer "New York, NY". Also my listmania list on time series will give you several sources to look at.
(1) Organization by key features of economic time series (trends, seasonality, outliers, conditional heteroskedasticity, non-linearity), rather than by methods, which provides a practical foundation for the various methodologies. The order in which chapters are presented reflects the order of difficulty in modeling trends, seasonality, etc. Even if there were no other benefits, this organization makes it worthwhile.
(2) Appropriate level for first book on time series models as applied to economic time series, explaining more difficult concepts GARCH and VAR without excess detail. Box and Jenksins book is more a textbook; Brockwell and Davis is also more advanced; Hamilton is comprehensive and technical, but not as friendly. This book is very approachable even if you have had only 1 or 2 statistics courses. In economics, many people are interested in forecasting, and Franeses here is a good start. If you are looking for a more advanced forecasting book, try the recent books by Clements and Hendry from Cambridge U Press.
(3) Clear distinction of the steps of model identification, estimation, diagnostics, and selection; something which other time series analysis books do not seem to do early or easily. (4) Delineates stochastic and deterministic models in the second chapter, providing a framework for when to take differences (eg. ARMA vs ARIMA). His timing is excellent. Many people I have interviewed on time series do not understand why they need to difference (eg use prices instead of returns) or why to transform the series (eg use logs instead of actual values).
(5) Generous use of examples with real not simulated data with a website to download all the data, making it possible to import, graph, and analyze on your own.
(6) A website containing printing corrections. Techincal books are likely to have some errors, but very few keep websites to list what those are.
(7) Revealing graphics, especially for conditional heteroskedasticity, the 'CH' in GARCH. Figures 7.1-7.3 illustrate the concept that large returns tend to follow large returns very cleanly.
(8) His notation is clear and consistent, yet not overwhelming: conventional Greek letters, only 1 level of subscripting, matrix noation where appropriate; even the results are neatly presented, as standard errors appear in () below their point estimates. Finally, Franses uses the same notation from chapter to chapter where the term is the same--not so common when chapters written by different authors.
(9) Great appendices: extensive and updated references, a thorough subject index, and an author index. My only suggestion for improvement is that a second edition or the website should contain some exercises. Highly recommended.
(10) The price! There are books published under Wiley at 3 to 4 times the price! under Springer Verlag for 2 to 3 times the price. Certain books are worth the money, but Cambridge University Press paperback publications, when written well, are exeptional values. I encourage the ambitious time series student to look at other time series books, including one written this year by Franses including Quantitative Models in Market Research.
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The book mixes three distinctive components - theory behind how to climb faster, practical hands on tips, and fireside annecdotes that will inspire you to get on the rock. The book will provide useful tips for the beginner and experienced climber alike.
Short stories are interspursed with unique, new, and useful knowledge on the art of squeezing more climbing out of your: day, weekend, or evening.
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I wish I'd had this book back when my oldest kids were apprehensive about the first day of school! In Dinofours: It's Time for School, Steven Metzger, a preschool teacher as well as an author, offers first timers and their parents gentle reassurance about that momentous event. Albert, a four year old dinosaur who acts just like the four year old in my house, isn't quite sure he wants to go to school. 'Mommy, will you stay with me at school?' asked Albert. 'I'll stay for awhile,' said Albert's mother. 'And then, when you're ready, I'll leave.' 'I'll never be ready.' Once inside the classroom, Albert meets his teacher, Mrs. Dee, and his classmates, who could have been modeled on the kids in my son's class last year. There's the boy who never met a stranger, the girl who grabs all the cookies, the kids who love to giggle during storytime. The classroom is pretty much like what my son experienced: a sand table, a playdough table, a dress-up area, an art center, a reading nook, and lots of bright colors and age-appropriate toys. When Albert starts to cry because he misses his mom, Mrs. Dee asks for his help in comforting a sad little doll. Later, when Brendan bursts into tears, Albert uses the same technique to comfort his new friend. Hans Wilhelm's illustrations capture the personality of each Dinofour. In the beginning of the book, Albert clings to his mother's leg, while Brendan zooms around the room from activity to activity. After story time, when the Dinofours spot their parents and caregivers waiting at the door to take them home, each little face is lit with sheer joy!
Since that time, we have purchased four more Dinofours books and plan to get the whole series!
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At Dover's low price, this book is a great buy. Get it! If you have more mathematical knowledge, then I also recommend "Proofs from the Book" by Aigner, et al., which is written for mathematicians in a similar style.
Even if you are a mathematician you will be suprized at many of the results and enjoy trying to solve some of the problems. Many of the problems are quite hard. Even though some of the problems are the standard ones, many are off the beaten track. No matter what your level of expertise, I am sure you will enjoy this book.
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A very comprehensive treatment of Direct Seeding, which is the low-cost approach to establishing a forest and very suitable to the small woodland owner.
The Economic Analysis chapter is quite useful and an eye opener.
This book will give you a second opinion on what is recommended by professional foresters and the DNR (Amazing fact: they are not always right !) Required reading for anybody that is looking into starting tree farming on a small scale.
Morsbach has selected with a critical eye items of conventional forestry gospel and subjected them to empirical scrutiny. The survivors of these tests, as well as his own ideas and those gleaned from his "Mavericks of Forestry" circle are included in this common sense (no nonsense) treatise on growing trees.
He seems to have given most ideas a fair look and a field test before he bestows his imprimatur. The many illustrations are well conceived and executed and are a helpful adjunct.
Morsbach offers strong arguments on biodiversity (imperative), clearcutting (a no-no), herbicides (a last resort) and the economics of it all.
I wish I could have read it during my woodland years, but it's here now to enjoy and benefit from. Thanks, Hans.
Don Mulcahy
Buffalo County, Wisconsin
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I was amazed by how many chapters Dr. Holzar devoted to anecdotal stories his respondents had told. I found some of them, especially the spooky ones with faces inside orbs just a bit beyond the pale. Perhaps he should recognize, having a first rank mind and apparently some training in science, that such tales should be treated with the highest of skepticisms. For example he relates one tale of two teenage girls who for some undisclosed reason, decide to bunk in an old house over night. The girls are terrorized by alleged foot steps tramping up stairs. Later on a subsequent evening they get a boy friend to sleep down stairs while they again bunk up. The whole footstep scenario repeats.
Doc Holzar, have you never been a father of a teenager? Do you not know their fascination with such imaginary bumps in the night and hysterical need to tell frightful chilling stories? Not saying it didn't happen, but when folks tell such extraordinary tales, it needs extraordinary proof.
However, this soft spot in the book did not detract from its over all fine quality.
The Doc asks us to be skeptical, but I guess its a case of do as I say, not as I have done.
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Since this book was written in the Civil War era, it is interesting to read things like, "In cases of 'excessive fatigue' or 'severe exposure', soldiers may receive one issue of whiskey of one gill per ration.
It simply doesn't get better for direct information about the Union army rules by the government. Besides being a great reference, this book can be quite entertaining as my previous paragraphed explained. ENJOY! 5 STARS!