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Coates is a regular feature at World Future Society conferences. Last year I heard him give an 8-part lecture series last year on scenarios of life and business in 2025, and later bought the cassette series.
Now he and his colleagues have brought out the book on the subject. It taps the worlds of science, technology, and engineering to look at the thirty year period of 1995 to 2025. Written in the form of a history book in 2025, Coates gives fifteen scenarios which reflect what life will be like in the United States as well as other societies (both affluent and less prosperous).
* Smart Living / house and home of the future * Information: The Global Commodity / integration of telecommunications * Harvesting the Fruit of Genetics / biotechnology * Powering Three Worlds /energy technology and efficiency * The World of Things/ materials technology * Working Toward a Sustainable World /environmental strategies and tools * Managing the Planet/ macroengineering the environment * Putting Space to Work /cooperation and commercialization of space * Our Built World/ infrastructure and construction * People and Things on the Move / transportation * The World of Production / custom manufacturing * A Quest for Variety and Sufficiency / food and agriculture * Striving for Good Health / disease prevention and life enhancement * Our Days and Our Lives / quality of life movement * Balancing Work and Leisure / lifestyle and entertainment
One added feature to *2025* is that at the end of each chapter, Coates lists the "Critical Developments, 1990-2025," plus the "Unrealized Hopes and Fears" of each field he covers.
*2025* is the best information rich and researched mid-range scenario for the future I have read. It also is enjoyable reading. I have sharing bits and pieces with my son ! and daughter who will be 41 and 39 in the year 2025. They get a kick out of hearing about computer "knowbots," toys made with "smart materials," or machine "language coaches." But *2025* is far deeper than just a preview of future gadgets.
This book could be a veritable field guide to your next 30 years, especially if you are in business, an entrepreneur, a person responsible for planning, or engaged in scientific and technical issues.
I am using it right now as a help in writing radio commercials which illustrate futures thinking for upcoming millennial celebrations.
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1.Logical order The order to display the topics in this book is logical and consistent. This is important for self-study users. At the beginning of each chapter, there's always a paragraph or two summarize the main points that are going to present in the chapter. This gives the reader a whole picture.
2. Clear explanation and examples The book uses easy explanatory languages and the examples are very representative. Each example, the author is showing us every detail steps, so it is easy to follow.
3.Relevant exercises and problems. At the end of each chapter, there are questions that can help to reinforce the concepts. Most questions can be found directly from the material. There are also exercises and problems that are related to the topic presented in the chapter. I remember there is an accounting book I used before that the problems required more knowledge than the chapter actually covered. This not the case in this book. Some of the examples in the chapter could be used as quick reference while working on the problems, too.
The only thing I would recommend, if I need to find some, is that I hope there could be more real life issues mentioned in the book. In this way, readers can relate the knowledge to daily life even closer.
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Now all this time'early 40's'the Brits had been warning KING about the present position and anticipated arrival of every German submarine sent across the Atlantic to attack our Eastern ports, but the number one SOB on our side (and an American) refused to ever listen to the Brits due to a pathological craziness that negatively focused on the Brits. Instead he did the opposite. The ports were left unguarded. The German wolf packs roamed just a few miles off our Eastern seashore at will and thousands of men died needlessly! Why this one salient point wasn't a large focal point of this book is beyond me.
As bald as King's purposeful negligence seems today I must admit that everyone wants to read about a leader who is also a buffoon. Madness and stupidity offer great areas of comedic relief even in pointless deadly battles. A glimpse at some of the most fatal but stupid and uninspired Anglo-Saxon battle plans'"over the top boys!"'of the 2nd World War will convence anyone of this! That's why this book isn't selling but would be selling 2000 copies a month right now had the authors and the U.S. Navy relentlessly searched for the truth and then after finding it wrote is all down exactly as it happened. But the U.S. Navy was then a boatload of WASPS in search of a great U.S. Naval leader and Mad Admiral King looked just like a leader with his clean face and pretty white hair. In their egoistic ways and means, the writers tried to place King anywhere but where he belongs: in a yellow submarine. Instead, King's long and costly road to victory was too grevious for everyone in the end and so no foolish writer wanted to spend time researching him when his record spoke for itself.
Mad Admiral King's true plan for the Pacific war was to island-hop for another three years, to have the war end in 1948. His dwarf like mind conceived the worst and possibly malignant war plans when he purposefully ordered Iwo Jima to be invaded. This latter plan of death and dying caused even the most cynical American Admiral-to-be to suggest that island hoping was a bad idea. Bypass the remaining islands and bomb Japan back into the stone age with incendiaries. The deaths of the truly great fighting men at Iwo Jima were placed there by King and ordered to take the island at allcosts. This is not insightfully addressed in the book on King because it's just more proof of King's pathological arrogance and conceit.
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Onion John is the kindly-given nickname of a man from Eastern Europe, whose English is undecipherable to everyone but Andy--who has to work at understanding his speech, until he discovers the trick of translating John's gutteral tongue and bizarre (medieval) ideas.
The boy, with no more ambition than to become a shopkeeper in New Jersey, becomes a companion to the strange but friendly hermit; they combine forces and enthusaism as they attempt to produce first rain, then gold. Onion John knows the rites to ward off "evil" spirits, to protect innocent workers, and even to fumigate an entire town. But does Serenity Need to be fumigated out of its expansive good will and generous desire to improve
John's living conditions--dragging him into the 20th century against his will? There is NO black magic, just European folklore and superstition. This is a simple, down home story about a boy who views his dad as a hero and his adult friend as a victim. Serious themes with elements of humor and touching family values.
The events that take place in Krumgolds' Onion John would probably never happen today. For instance, if a homeless man dressed in a strange coat and reeking of onions approached me on the street and spoke in a foreign language, I would not stop to wonder, If I listened long enough, would he start making sense? No! I would walk away - quickly. Not Andrew J. Rusch, Jr. He stops and really listens to Onion John, leading to their friendship and, eventually, the concern and care of their home town, Serenity. I enjoyed the interesting ideas Onion John had; for example, making rain with a parade and driving ghosts and evil spirits away with smells. I also like the part of the story that dealt with the "race to space" and Andy's dad's desire for Andy to get to the moon. I tend to prefer more adventurous stories or stories with a little more "action," which is why I chose to give Onion John four stars.
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Many factoids are told all over the book, seemingly out of place, when they would have been most appropriately placed at the time of the event. For example, we learn in a parenthetical sidebar to a later period in his life, that Pershing had two bouts of a venerial disease while he was in the Phillipenes earlier. Given that there were controversial news stories at that time, about his having kept a Filipeno woman or having kids who called him 'father,' that factoid was appropriate at the earlier time when he arrived in the Phillipenes with his new wife and that particular controversy exploded, not years afterwards.
I am especially vexed at the air-brushing of his time as commander of the all Black 10th Cavalry. The 'norm' of racist thought that pervaded white males of Pershing's era and social/economic class is well-documented. Yet, we read very little direct writings of Pershing's opinions on race. We read about one of his friends who wrote racist things alluding to the usual put-downs about blacks and their capabilities as soldiers and human beings. We also get a feel for the social put-down of Pershing being set as commander of the Black cavalry troops; the 'N_ _ _ _ _ Jack Pershing' nickname as case-in-point. But, what about himself? Where are in his letters during that time? We hear that he physically abused a Black soldier (with no apparent punishment forthcoming)in a temporary fit of anger, demonstrating his obsession about strict military form, order and dress rather than his feelings about Blacks. In later chapters of the book, we read more about some fiance of one of Pershings'grandsons, than about the 10th Cav and Pershings' role!!! What about the historically brave, courageous performance of the 10th Cav in the Spanish American War? What was Pershings' leadership role? His feelings? Nada. Once again a page in Black history, brushed aside. Could it be because no one wants to admit the 'great' general disdained his black command? It seems to me, that just like only a few want to talk about Thomas Jefferson's decades-long love affair with a slave woman, this yet another written historical text that wants to ignore something that in modern times would be perceived as negative concerning an American Historical figure. Mr. Smith is this so?
Basically, I see Pershings' rise to 6 stars as an adventure in the men's club of back-slapping buddies, rather than exceptional military achievement. OK.. he subjegated the people of the Phillipenes and became the great white father to many. OK.. he chased a Mexican bandit across the country (never caught him) and ended cross-border raids. OK... he withstood French and British pressure to use American bodies as cannon fodder in that bloody 'great' war. But America came to that War late and Pershing's role was limited in the overall picture. But, compared to the great Civil War Generals, George Washington, the exceptional WWII Generals like MacArthur, Patton or Eisenhower.. how in heavens' name did Pershing earn 6 stars? The first star was given because he was a buddy of Teddy Roosevelt. His battle commission in the Spanish American war was granted because he 'knew somebody' to give him a waver out of his West Point teaching post where everyone seemed to loathe him anyway. The command in WWI was under a pacifist Secretary of War and a peace-desiring academic Commander-in-Chief that knew nothing of war.
For me, this book is a sub-standard written text, too short, without more analysis of major historical issues -- coupled with a subject matter that cannot be apologized for (the man didn't seem to have earned 6 stars in my view).. Still, it made an interesting read in very few parts (the stories of his family's Civil War past, his historic/artistic friends, the sadness of the fire at the Presidio) and silly reading in other parts (the exploits of some Pershing off-spring as rich, alcoholic jet-setters with a famous name.) Generally, the book was a disapointment all around.
Pershing, born in 1860, rose from obscurity to the General of US Armies garnering an unprecedented sixth star. He went from fighting Indians of the American West on horseback to leading mechanized battles of World War I. Gene Smith's Until the Last Trumpet Sounds has only scratched the surface of a truly remarkable life and, therefore, leaves the reader feeling he could have done quite a bit more. Even so, what he has completed merits a solid 4 stars.
The details about Pershing's early life are a little sketchy. As the story moves along, Smith includes more and more info (presumably because more source material exists). I never got a sense of what Pershing's life was like growing up, but I got a lot (bordering on too much) about his relationship with his son and sisters.
I wholeheartedly disagree with the very negative review below. This book stays VERY focused on Pershing and, in my opinion, does not give too much detail about other people involved in the story. And, while Pershing may not have been as colorful (or as politically active) as Grant, MacArthur, Eisenhower, etc., he sure as heck earned six stars (which he never wore). With very little support from home, and against a great deal of pressure from the French and British, he trained and formed a US Army out of practically nothing, beat the Germans (don't argue that the French and British could have done it alone), and was the ONLY major voice calling for Germany's unconditional surrender (would WWII have happened if Wilson & the others had listened?).
The greatness of Pershing's acheivement comes through clearly in Smith's book. Sometimes, it's a little harder to get a feel for the greatness of the man.
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Also, he tries to be funny, but fails. You have to read through tons of stupid stuff to get to anything of relevance. And you can't skip over it either, or you'll miss the tiny morsel of important information that he put in among his meaningless drivel. This book truly needs a good editor.
I was also very disappointed to find that there is no accompanying CD-ROM or website to go along with the tutorials. For each new sample database or table, the reader has to build the framework by hand before being able to work along with the examples in the book. This is made virtually impossible by glaring omissions in the book--whole tables are added and filled in without any notice or explanation, leaving you to scratch your head and wonder "where did THAT come from?" In many cases I resorted to filling in as much data as I could based on close examination of the screen shots!
Finally, although the book discusses a great deal of Access arcana in passing, it has very little depth, and virtually no discussion of what goes into the design of a quality database. You can use Access by the end (if you are persistent) but your design is sure to be weak...
(My apologies to the authors... I just call it like I see it.)