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First, whoever reads this obviously has to realize that the author was a partner at an investment bank AND leans conservatively. These two points DO give liberals reason to question where his heart lies; to discount the whole of the book for that reason hints that readers aren't being open minded and fair. And before you write this review off as bad, note that I gave it two stars too....
Peterson tries in this book to make a point-- that due to what in techincal terms are called Phase-III demographic shifts (i.e. birth rate falls, death rate falls, a higher percentage of the population reaches the retirement age...) the means of entitlement that have become traditional don't work as simply any more. In his other book ('The greying...') he makes the case for the United States; in this one he focuses on Western Europe.
His evidence as presented is valid. There is no lock-box; paying for my retirement (I'm 22 right now...) with the wages of my children will be impossible without significant structural changes in the system. (Personally, I think that paying for it with the stock market is pretty bad karma too.... but that's neither here nor there for this review....) European countries and Japan are due to be hit doubly hard because of their traditionally-greater entitlements and the specifics of their demographies.... most economists would agree on these points....
And his solutions are good-- given that people have the ability to save (assuming that people reliant on Social Security do.... not other rich people... like the author...) and that people are willing to work. His solutions aren't biased so much by his position excepting the possibility that he may not realize that for lots of people, saving is an impossibility.... working longer in years is more or less a definate....
But these aren't really earth-shattering ideas. Adding to this, I find his writing style annoying. More so than this, I find reviewers who have slammed this book as being bad just based on it being written by an I.Banker annoying.
Think! And.... by a book on this pheonomenon by a better economist.... who doesn't try to dumb down the information....
On page 72, he makes a point that I should have seen sometime over the last 41 years, when I first began looking into this problem. An unfunded liability must be amortized, just like a home mortgage. As of 1999, the unfunded liability of Social Secutrity was $10 trillion. The unfunded liability of Medicare was also $10 trillion. The yearly amortization payment that the U.S. government must set aside each year to fund these two programs over the next 30 years at 6% interest is $1.4 trillion per year. You can verify this on any amortization calculator on the Web. Just take off 9 zeroes when you enter 20,000, and stick them back on when you derive the yearly amortization figure.
The estimated U.S. government budget for fiscal 2000 is $2 trillion. This means that, in order to fund these two off-budget programs, the government must spend 75% of its budget.
Peterson might also have made this point: If (if!!!!) the government does not do this, then this year's $1.4 trillion shortfall must be added to the total unfunded liability. And if the government refuses to fund next year's amortization schedule, it will add another $1.5 trillion. And so on, until.... "Sorry, gramps: no more payments to you." I'm age 58. That's me.
The Federal Reserve System will create the money, thereby creating mass inflation, or else Congress will move up the retirement age, year by year, stiffing the geezers. The government-guaranteed retirement myth will end.
The book shows that Japan will hit the actuarial brick wall in 2003. Italy will hit it in 2005. The G-7 dominoes will topple.
This is a great book. When the chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations says a crisis is looming, you had better believe it.
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I'm very open minded (especially about sexuality), I'm a fan of Peter Mayle's books, and I'm male: but unfortunately, I didn't really enjoy this book much -- I was actually a bit turned off in an vague kind of way. The content is clever and funny, but what I think I don't like is the style of the illustrator's cartoons. I'm pleased to _have_ the book, as part of my Mayle collection, but I wouldn't actually recommend it to anyone to read.
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In essence, the only reason social security is potentially underfunded in the long-term is because of their ( ), waste, and abuse. A small corrective action taken now by Congress can correct an imbalance. Yeah, I know, congressional action is another oxymoron, but a fellow has to have some hope. Hey! Why don't we curtail the Congress's retirement program instead? Not in this life. More seriously, Mr Petersen uses the worst possible case scenario to build his case, assuming all seniors will stop working, that the economy will not contiue to grow, and ignoring the fact that all the money given to seniors by way of social security and medicare go back into the economy and is not "lost" at all, any more than money spent on defense or agriculture by the Congress is lost. Only in Mr. Petersen's neighborhood.
The bottom line in all this is that there are obviously a number of much better, clearer, and smarter books that make much more sense about the prospects associated with the aging babyboomer population as well as covering the welter of issues associated with the long-term social, economic, and political impacts one can reasonably associate with a gradually aging population. Try "America The Wise" by Theodore Roszak out instead, and consign this gloomy, silly, superficial and self-serving piece of neo-conservative political ( ) for the dustbin of history, where it rightly belongs. END