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The authors come up with an alternative to the Markowitz approach for portfolio selection based on something they call a simugram, which looks to be computer intensive.
Much of the book is spent on fundamental analysis, and indeed the authors do not seem favorably disposed to technical analysis. They dump on Black-Scholes and blame its use for the collapse of LTCM and Enron.
Some finance professionals will find much of this book annoying, since it attacks many standard concepts, such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis. And it seems to attack some of the basic tools in the finance tool kit, such as "risk neutral" evaluation.
One of the troubling things I found is that though the authors attack the canon of modern finance, they have only limited alternatives to recommend. They seem to recommend either doing deep fundamental analysis, using their complex simugram portfolio analysis, or putting one's money into an index fund. Most of us don't have the time to do the first or the software to do the second. To do the third really gives up on mathematical finance.
Although study Bibles do offer value, I think that sometimes there is too much of man's option for me to use these as my every day primary usage Bible. The New Thompson-Chain offers something truly different from other study Bibles... it fully uses God's Word to explain itself without the help of man's opinions. It is an incredible tool to dig deep into the Word of God easily - it can be used by beginners or "road scholars" of God's Word alike. Top of mind benefits are easy to read text, incredibly thorough reference system, the pages just the right thickness, extensive maps, great archeological section, many blank pages in the front and back of the book to write your own notes. But what I like best of all is the unique index system where you can look up a topic and see all the scriptures on that topic printed out together, not just the scriptural references to look up on your own. That way, you can read 10+ scriptures on the topic, all on one page viewing, rather than flipping through 10 or more scriptures.
New King James Version + Thompson Chain Reference = AWESOME BIBLE!
I was a little concerned about the "new" TCR's as several reviewers mentioned degradations in quality and I certainly didn't like the thin glossy paper I saw in the hardbacks in the bookstore. I was delighted today when I received my large print deluxe leather edition Bible.
The Bible I received has excellent flat, opaque Bible paper perfect for note-taking. And, the binding appears to have stitching in addition to the glue, so I'd say the quality of the binding is fine and should serve one well for years.
One caveat in regard to the large print edition--It is LARGE! Not the print (it's 9 point instead of the regular 8), but the Bible itself. It's not so unwieldy that I would think twice about using it, but if size is an issue for you, check the dimensions and choose accordingly.
I can't say enough good things about this Bible. It has my highest recommendation; you won't be sorry in choosing this Bible.
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In fact, it demonstrates conclusively that the American people suffered a collective fit of halluciantion when they voted this incompetent man into office.
The book has some nice information about Crawford, Texas and the Bush's dogs -- but it does not tell us anything about the psychology of the Boy Emperor. Perhaps this is becuase the BE has no particular psychological nuance to display? Perhaps.
Leadership, as Fred Nietzsche once opined, is about breaking the rules when others think that rule breaking would be a mistake.
Bush's "leadership," as noted by the author, consists of learning the rules and efficiently applying them with charm and gingerly worded disinformation. Then again, maybe the book isn't half bad. I learned how to be manipualtive and nice at the same time.
If you want to enhance your ability to lead - read this book. Mine is covered with notes and I bought one for each of my staff!
Then after reading the first few chapters, I realized that this book was not about President Bush's politics (although there was some strategies revealed) or about his faith (although his personal convictions are the heart of his core values) or even about his IQ level (his emotional intelligence is recognized as highly intuitive). This was a book was about how an average person can become the leader they want to be.
I finished the book quickly from a purely biographical point of view and now am going back over each chapter to concentrate on the leadership competencies and how I can learn from the examples. The authors know what they are talking about but they also made it real easy for the reader to put into practice the lessons that need to be learned.
After reading this book, I also came to appreciate and admire President Bush and how his personal discipline is one of the timeless principles of his leadership. I am glad that I read this book at this time in history.
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To Weaver the evils of the world were rooted in modernism, industrialism, materialism, and nationalism, all of which he blamed on Union victory. At one point Weaver even asserted that total war -- war unrestrained by chivalry or other ethical restraints -- was a northern custom which had led to the rise of National Socialism in Germany.
The stark line Weaver drew between South and North, with divergent and logical worldviews ascribed to each, was for him the line between good and evil. In reducing every issue to either-or, Weaver oversimplified his subjects, so that his essays resemble legal arguments: Haynes v. Webster, Thoreau v. Randolph, Lee v. Sherman, Emerson v. Warren. In each case, Weaver's preference is obvious.
I found the strongest essays to be in section one, about southern literature and the Agrarian writers. Here are many useful and profound insights that time has not diminished. When Weaver leaves his specialty, however, his comments are less persuasive, amounting to sweeping sociological observations and cheerleading for the old South.
The converse of Weaver's feeling at home in an imagined South is feeling alienated in an imagined North. Although he spent most of his career teaching literature at the University of Chicago, he isolated himself from the city both physically and intellectually. Perhaps if Weaver had made more effort to adapt, he would have left us a richer legacy, one less marked by decline and defeat.
I admire Weaver's work a great deal. He should be praised for showing, from a conservative perspective, the limitations of capitalism, industrialism, and modernism, limitations which are more often the outcry of the radical left and dismissed as anti American. He would have been wise to consider also the limitations of the old South. I am less willing to blame today's discontents on Union victory. In Weaver's rigid arguments, moreover, there is little to be learned about the vital American principles of acceptance, pluralism, and compromise.
Sometimes it is difficult to sort out the contradictions in Weaver's work, but I prefer to keep in mind his comments from Ideas Have Consequences: Piety accepts the right of others to exist, and it affirms an objective order, not created by man, that is independent of the human ego.
"Then we noticed that in the second pillow was the indentation of a head. One of us lifted something from it, and leaning forward, that faint and invisible dust dry and acrid in the nostrils, we saw a long strand of iron-gray hair."
The book is a monument to Lee and Jackson. Anyone who wants to understand Picket's charge needs to read this excellent book.
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I recommend that the reader go through the preface. It is not the standard preface that outlines the text but rather it introduces arguments justifying the approach. In the preface he describes the Monty Hall problem. This is a wonderful problem for illustrating the subtleties of probability theory. Many mathematicians (including thee famous Paul Erdos) were led to incorrect solutions through probabilistic arguments. Although a careful mathematical treatment would lead to the correct answer, Professor Thompson points out that the easiest way to be convinced of the correct answer is to simulate the game.
The text is fairly technical and is meant for the applied statistician with a strong mathematical and statistical background. For the right audience it is a very entertaining book.
The philosophy is very similar to the philosophy of Efron and other resampling statisticians who see the value in the use of intensive computing to replace analytical methods when the analysis is difficult. The book covers many of the computer-intensive methods that are currently popular including the EM algorithm, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs Sampling) and resampling methods including bootstrap. Monte Carlo methods are introduced early (after discussing pseudo random number generation) along with various techniques for variance reduction in the simulations. Then a variety of models and interesting practical examples are presented.
The presentation is not very systematic which may be unsettling for some readers. However, I think it is worth the effort. Any statistician with a broad range of consulting experience will appreciate and relate to Thompson's ideas.
Although the title is "Simulation", don't get the idea that this is a typical traditional text like say Fishman. Thompson covers many of the same topics but in different and interesting ways. For example the chapter on random quadrature covers most of the Monte Carlo techniques that one can find in Hammersley and Handscomb but he demonstrates the methods as ways to approximate integrals of functions. Although this was an early application of the Monte Carlo method, it is not what we typically do in simulation. But these techniques are still useful and regaining popularity when intensive computing is involved as comes about with bootstrap or Markov chain Monte Carlo. He also shows graphically the pitfalls of some pseudorandom number generators but does not get carried away in the quest to test randomness, a trap that too many of our colleagues fall into.
As Pieter van Gelder pointed out in his review, Thompson stimulates us with some examples of how Monte Carlo methods can readily attack solutions to differential equations such as in the gambler's ruin, the Dirichlet problem and the Fokker-Planck equation.
Thompson's strength is his knowledge of nonparametric density estimation and stochastic processes. Areas in which he has done a great deal of research.
Several authors including Thompson and Dudewicz have noted that the nonparametric bootstrap suffers some because of its discrete jumpy nature. If the distribution that one is sampling from is known to be continuous then smoothing the empiric distribution before resampling makes sense. Dudewicz refers to this approach as "the generalized bootstrap". Thompson and Taylor put a great deal of effort into such a resampling algorithm and named it SIMDAT. Section 5.3 addresses this approach. Thompson also presents SIMEST an algorithm that develops a likelihood function through simulation to then find parameter estimates that approximately maximize this likelihood. He demonstrates this with an oncological example of a stochastic model for tumor growth.
Other very practical and interesting examples of simulation in the text are rank testing for high-dimensional multivariate statistical process control, models for stocks (using geometric Brownian motion)and other problems in finance.
A whole chapter, Chapter 10 is devoted to resampling-based testing of hypotheses and Chapter 9 "Bayesian Approaches" covers Gibbs sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Ideas of experimental design and response surface optimization are covered in Chapters 10 and 11.
Unusual for a statistics text is Chapter 8 that deals with the mathematics of Chaos theory.
Chapter 12 should not be overlooked. This puts many of the techniques together in the study of the AIDS epidemic. This is an endeavor that Professor Thompson has put a great deal of research effort into and his finding about the effects of the homosexual bath houses is very informative and enlightening.
This is a great book for statistician, operation research analysts, scientists and engineers. It contains some valuable material and philosophy that you will find nowhere else!
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