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The problems facing society are very real. We are running out of fossil fuels. We are exacerbating that problem by flagrant miscalculations of the costs and effects of fossil fuels, as well as miscalculation of how much remains. These miscalculations seem to be carried by a deep current of denial flowing throughout society. In this regard, our relationship to fossil fuels may be turning more into an addiction than a harnessing of nature's abundance. Rifkin distils and presents the barest facets of the problem in an engaging and powerful presentation. There can be little doubt that hydrogen, though not the next source of energy, will become a rallying cry, and an icon of renewable energy in the public mind.
Rifkin is straightforward in explaining that hydrogen is not the source, but rather, the medium of the next big shift in energy technology. Thin treatment of solutions after a depressingly thick presentation of the problem accurately reflects the real dilemma. The problem is huge, and at this point in time, solutions are little more than a flickering hope.
The Hydrogen Economy by Jeremy Rifkin is the opening salvo in a public debate that must widen and deepen quickly if we are to have even the slightest chance of a timely solution to what is looking more each year like a disasterous finale to the fossil fuel age.
If taken litteraly, Rifkin's application of entropy to human society will seem strained to the thermodynamically astute. As a metaphore it is elegant. Clearly, Rifkin hopes, above all else, to promote the possibilities of hydrogen as a socioeconomic equalizer. I share this hope. But under the circumstances, its like hoping you'll have steak and eggs for breakfast as you watch the Titanic sink. I'll take a solution anyway we can get it. But first, we've got to open our eyes, face the problem, and discuss it. Reading this book is a good first step.
Don't be surprised if there are a lot of negative reactions to this book. Everone feels uncomfortable when confronted while in denial. Its worse when the denial is collective and more so when it is global. You're not supposed to "feel good" about a book like this. Denying the conclusions is bound to be a frequent reaction, but its not a healthy reaction. It will undoubtedly be better recieved outside the US where fossil fuel addiction is less accute.
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the social implications of technology. I have previously read
his book, "Entropy".
Unfortunately in "The Hydrogen Economy" as well in "Entropy"
Rifkin does not seem to understand the topics that he addresses
in very much depth.
Rifkin's analysis of the energy basis of civilizations and
specifically on the initial success of the Roman Empire and
later collapse as their attempts to maintain their power produced
progressively diminishing returns are interesting and very relevant to our current situation.
He does a good job of explaining another very important topic,
"The End of Cheap Oil". This topic is from an article by Colin
Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère from the March 1998 Scientific
American.
...
According to this theory global oil production follows
a roughly bell-shaped curve with the peak occurring when
approximately half the oil has been extracted. This model applies
both to individual wells and to global oil production. Based on
this model and the most reliable available data, global oil
production will peak and permanently and continuously decline
after that. The theory was was originally developed in the 1950's
by M. King Hubbert a prominent petroleum geologist with Shell and
the U.S. Geological Survey. In the middle 1950's Hubbert used
this theory to accurately predict the peak and decline of U.S.
oil production which occurred in 1970.
Other books that cover "The End of Cheap Oil" and
resource depletion are:
Walter Youngquist - Geodestinies
Colin Campbell - The Coming Oil Crisis
The Party's Over - Richard Heinberg
Hubbert's Peak - Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Unfortunately, in the final section of "The Hydrogen Economy"
Rifkin does a poor job of defining a hydrogen and fuel cell
replacement for our current energy system. He does at times admit
that hydrogen is an energy carrier and not a primary energy
source. However in most of this section of the book he acts as if
hydrogen were an energy source.
His assertions that renewable energy sources such as solar
photovoltaic and wind will continuously decline in price to the
point where hydrogen can be produced at very low cost are not
credible and remind me of the assertion in the 1950's that
nuclear energy would be too cheap to meter.
He makes an analogy to the Internet to support his proposal for a
distributed hydrogen economy. His analogy is weak. He ignores
the hundreds of billions of dollars that would be needed to
make the transition. He also ignores the huge environmental
impacts that would occur in manufacturing and installing such an
infrastructure worldwide.
He completely ignores the most fundamental issue which is the
fundamental unsustainability of an economic system that depends
on continuous physical economic growth. He also ignores the very
low energy and materials efficiencies of our current economy.
Two much better books addressing these issues are
The Eco-Economy - Lester Brown
Natural Capitalism - Paul Hawken, Amory and Hunter Lovins
Overall this book has some value, but has fundamental flaws and
is too much of an uncritical promotional piece for hydrogen.
Hydrogen and renewable energy can potentially make very
important contributions to environmental sustainability,
but Rifkin does not address them very well.