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though the following analogy is somewhat cheesy, i find it appropriate: most authors who have written on thermo are like beginning kung fu students who do all sorts of fancy moves, backflips, and sommersaults but who ultimately land on their behinds. fermi is like the grand master who uses a stunning sparsity of moves, but each one is necessary and each one is enough. in the end, his competition doesn't stand a chance. he's just that good.
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Fermi was famous for being one of those very rare physicists who are good at both theory and experiment. That helped as he and his team did the neutron experiments that led to his 1938 Nobel Prize. After a dramatic escape from fascist Italy, he and his family emigrated to America. There he went on to create the first nuclear chain reaction (on December 2, 1942) and to play a major role in the development of the atom bomb. After helping to win World War II, he helped set sensible science policy and did more great physics. His name is enshrined in the element Fermium, in the Fermi National Accelerator Lab, and in some of the most impotant concepts of physics.
This book is a good way to learn about a great man and about the way the physical world works. I hope you'll enjoy it; let me know what you think of it.
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My only criticism of the book is the awkward referencing system it uses. Numbers in the main text point to a "Notes and Further Reading" chapter (these notes are themselves fun to read!), but then numbers in this chapter point to a "References" chapter. It got confusing for a while.
The writer starts off with a brief discussion on the Fermi paradox and states quite correctly that it is one of the greatest paradoxes of science today. I agree with him that its answer will be of major significance to us all.
He then goes though 50 solutions to the problem that have been suggested. He firstly provides a brief discussion on each point and his comments which you can agree or disagree with. I think that he is fair in his comments until he came to 45 to 49. His comment here, I think need a lot more work.
Some such as solution (11) where he discusses that SETI may not want to colonise worlds after making at best a few colonies, I found weak. If only as I would expect that these colony worlds to be more in favour of continuing expanding even more so then the homeworld. One would expect that colony will produce colony.
Solution (26) that the SETI after hitting a certain level of technology goes elsewhere eg different universes seemed very similar to solution (13) that they go to place we are not looking for. Maybe it should have been a (13b) rather then its own solution.
Solution (34) that the conditions were not suitable for life till very recently is one that I wondered why he did not develop further as it seems to me to be one of the most promising solutions. The conditions that allow a SETI to form is relatively recent in the universe. Although it cannot fully answer the Fermi paradox, as the writer states it, it may be able to answer some of it. Most of the galaxies and stars cannot have a SETI as they are too young. I don't know why he did not use this part in his grand solution (50).
His comment to solutions (45) to (49), I think need more work as several others have stated here.
His solution at the end (50) is not new and also contains a mathematical error in step 5 half a million x (1 -20%) = 400,000 not 100,000 as he states.
Another solution that the author might want to consider might be solution (51) that the ocean covers on earth 3/4 of the globe. This almost all. What if almost all the world was covered in water say 98%, could such a water world create a SETI? I doubt it.
Be warned that he supports the position that we are alone and offers quite good reasoning for his position. Its a position I agree with. But at the very least by reading this book you will get the best discussion that I have seen on the Fermi paradox. I liked it so much that after read the book and went out to buy another copy for a friend for his birthday as I wanted to keep this book for reference.
That was Fermi's solution of course, and it is a popular one; however I don't think that Webb comes anywhere near to making a convincing case; and at any rate he is somewhat equivocal about whether his answer applies to the entire universe or to just the galaxy. It is clear that his answer applies only to life as we know it, having a carbon based biochemistry and a cellular structure. My feeling is that intelligent life forms may evolve from some other chemical basis or even from some use of energy and matter we know nothing about.
On pages 237 to 239 Webb presents his argument that we are the only extraterrestrial civilization (ETC) in the galaxy by a process of elimination, i.e., life must be on a planet within both a galactic habitable zone (GHZ) and a solar continuously habitable zone (CHZ) around the right kind of star; must avoid cosmic disasters like supernovae; must have the right kind of moon, Jupiter, and plate tectonics; must evolve beyond single cells; must develop tool use and language, etc. He ends up sifting out everything except us, and the only reason he doesn't sift us out is that he has set us aside since we actually exist!
This is close to sophistry, perhaps, but it has been argued before. I might call it the Fallacy of Elimination by Unknown Probabilities about Matters that May or May Not Be Essential. Putting that aside, consider this: If we extrapolate from what we know (as opposed to any speculation) about the existence of life in just our own galaxy, we should expect on average--at the very least--one ETC per galaxy. Wow. Far from being alone, this suggests more than 100 billion other ETCs are out there, although we are not likely to ever communicate with them.
One of the things this book demonstrates, as others have before (see especially, Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee's Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe [2000], which Webb acknowledges as influential), is that when you're dealing with so little concrete information in such a vastness, it is impossible to be entirely convincing one way or the other. The conclusion in Rare Earth, with which Webb concurs, is that life is common in the universe, but intelligent life is rare. I agree substantially with this, but my "rare" is perhaps larger than their "rare."
Some of the familiar but crucial questions considered here were addressed in the excellent Extraterrestrials: Where Are They? (1995) edited by Ben Zuckerman and Michael H. Hart. For example, How long do ETCs exist before they go extinct? Is space travel enormously difficult and expensive or is it just very difficult? Do ETCs have a psychology similar enough to ours to make them want to communicate? How would they communicate, using what sort of medium?--even: would we recognize a communication from an ETC if we received one?
The answer to these questions and many others is, we don't know. But it's fun to speculate; and in speculating at least we can eliminate many conceptual and logical errors that might crop up. Furthermore such speculations expand the mind and allow the imagination a greater range. In direct contrast to Webb I think there's only the smallest chance that we are alone. Amazing how people can come to such divergent conclusions from the same evidence!
For such answers as, They are so advanced that they have no interest in communicating with us, and They are so into their own self-constructed pleasure-enhancing virtual existence that they care not to look outward, etc., Webb has a ready response. For such answers to solve the Fermi paradox, he says, they have to apply to every single ETC. Surely, he posits, not all ETCs would have such a psychology. But, by taking all such solutions and playing an elimination game similar to the one Webb plays on pages 237-239, we can reverse his conclusion and eliminate all existing ETCs as non-communicative for one reason or another, arriving at the grand conclusion that we are not alone and that there are indeed a whole bunch of ETCs out there.
I wish I had the space to address some other Stephen Webb arguments that I think are faulty, but perhaps just one more will be suggestive. On page 229, while arguing that only humans have symbolic language, he relates an experiment in which a dolphin learns to operate an apparatus to release food. The dolphin is timed. Then the scientists close that dolphin off and release a second dolphin into the pool with the apparatus. The first dolphin can send signals to the second dolphin. The scientists then time how long it takes for the second dolphin to learn to work the apparatus. They discover that it takes the second dolphin on average just as long as it did the first. Webb writes: "We can conclude from this that the first dolphin was unable to tell the second dolphin how the apparatus worked."
Well, maybe. But replace the dolphins with humans, and the reward of food with hundred dollar bills, and perhaps we might conclude that humans are also unable to communicate how the apparatus worked!
Bottom line: for SETI enthusiasts and anyone interested in the prospect of extraterrestrial life, this is a book, despite its flaws, not to be missed.
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It is excellent if one already has a background in nuclear physics, and is a wonderful reference.
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I also thought she told a great story about the difficulties for a family to not only move into a strange country with strange languages and customs, only to find themselves rushed into an isolated paramilitary environment.
No great lessons in nuclear fission, lots for nuclear families.
BTW, I was surprised that Amazon does not cross-list this among the other Manhattan Project books.
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The book is small in size, but contains clear and comprehensive explanations of the subject.
There is usually something I don't like in a book. However, I cannot find a single negative thing about this one. It is that good!