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List price: $24.95 (that's 30% off!)
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The CD that comes with it contains some of the Capitol Steps' all time classics tunes. If you don't already own the albums, this can be funny to listen to. The title is a bit misleading, though. The CD is titled "Sixteen Scandals", but it is NOT the same as the CD that the Capitol Steps released in 1997 under the same name.
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List price: $16.00 (that's 30% off!)
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A basic explanation of their theory is that history moves by seasons from spring to winter. In spring, there is a civilizational high of good behavior, peace, and prosperity but also stultifying conformity and spiritual deadness. In summer, there is a consciousness revolution, in which the younger generation rebels against their elders and their institutions. In fall, there is an unraveling in which people turn inwards and focus on their private satisfactions and let public institutions and the community values fall into neglect. In winter, there is a crisis of usually war or economic depression that forces everyone to become more communal and morally strict again.
The generations are of 4 types. A prophet generation is born in a civilization high of springtime. They are inwardly focused on spiritual values. They rebel in youth, but become morally authoritarian in old age during a crisis. A nomad generation is born in a summer of consciousness revolution and aren't raised very well since their elder parents are more focused on themselves than their children. This generation is considered a lost or bad generation in which crime and immorality increase with its rising. A hero generation is born in the fall of an unraveling; they become the heroes during a crisis when they are young adults. An artist generation is born during a crisis; they are a meek and mild generation who are sensitive to other's needs and are indecisive as leaders.
When reading the book I couldn't help noting that a prophet generation often generates an unneeded crisis to solve. President George W. Bush is of a prophet generation and I kept thinking of him as a prime example of that, making Saddam Hussein to be bigger threat than he really is. I also made judgements against the artist's generations emphasis of plurality and diversity and the expense of cultural cohesion. I made judgements against the hero generation for hogging most of the public spending on themselves, letting young people fend for themselves. I made judgements against my own nomad generations for their excessive love of tasteless entertainment and general down in the dumps depression and negativity.
It was also interesting to note that during civilizational crisis and high, society is generally anti-female and pro-male in its outlook. In a consciousness revolution and an unraveling, it is general pro-female and anti-male. Depending on the times, people will general espouse philosophies that celebrate or denigrate either sex.
The current generations now living in large numbers are the G.I. elders who are heroes passing on, the Artistic Silent generation who are in elderhood, the Prophetic Baby Boomers who are entering elderhood, The Nomadic Gen Xer's who are beginning to enter middle-age, and Heroic Millennials who are beginning to move into rising adulthood. A new artistic/compromiser generation will eventually replace Millennials in the youth category.
A heroic generation usually values conformity over individualism and they tend to be rationalistic and secular. They build public institutions and generally are young adults during a prosperous, optimistic age. An Artist generation is known for its high educational level and professional expertise. A Prophet genereration is known for its focus on inward idealistic spiritual values and its weakening educational levels. A Nomad generation is known as pragmatic, cynical, unbelieving, pessimistic and poorly educated generation who are middle-aged technical managers of a crisis era. They are wild as kids and young adults, but cautious and reactionary as older people. Each generation rebels against the values of the others, which has a tendency to balance out any excesses given to any one value.
The authors give famous examples of different generational types, some of which fit the type while others don't. The ones that don't are interesting to note: Norman Rockwell, that creator of wholesome Americana art was from the bad Lost generation. He seems more like Hero generational type. Andrew Jackson, that Southern hell-raiser who chased a rival with a knife in the days of his youth was of the supposedly meek and mild Artist/Compromiser generation. He seems more like a Bad/ Nomadic generational type.
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The central tenet of this book is that generations don't age the same way, and when looking at generations through history, the correct way to look at them is by cohort - that is, by groups with similar birth years - rather than by age. In other words, if you're born in 1950 and grow up in the '60s and '70s, you'll be different at age 50 than you will if you're born in 1970 and grow up in the '80s and '90s. Strauss and Howe then trace a number of generational cohorts through American History, and find evidence of a cycle of generational types - usually a four part cycle, but in one case a three part cycle. For example, they liken Gen X (whom they call "13ers"), born in 1961-1980, to the "Lost" generation born in the late 1800s.
As a trailing edge boomer, born in 1960, I was not surprised to find that the authors, both boomers, correctly identify the defining characteristics of my generation - characteristics that I happen to dislike, as I'm in the minority that don't fit the mold that well, but that I have to acknowledge as accurate for the majority. On the other hand, the description of the Silent generation, to which my parents belong, was an eye opener - it explained well why my fathers views of what different stages in a man's life are like seemed so alien to me. The description of Gen X was likewise enlightening, both in terms of explaining some of my previous business interactions with Gen Xers (they always seem so surprised when someone actually gives them a break - turns out it's because they hardly ever get breaks) and helped me understand and interact much better with one particular Gen X who is very important to me - my wife. The description of the Millenials seems to be accurate so far for undergraduates I work with.
Two caveats when reading this book - first, remember it's American history, and the conclusions don't apply to those born overseas; second, the authors seem to emphasize the optimistic view of the future, for example focusing on the possibility that the current cycle will be a triumphant four part cycle, rather than an agonizing three part cycle as the Civil War cycle was.
At any rate, I'm now buying my own copy. I just wish I could find a hardcover, but hopefully it will still be in print when the paperback I'm buying wears out from repeated reference in a few years.
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The major flaw with this book is that the essays are of somewhat uneven interest level, style, and quality. Personally, for instance, I found the essay on the Mongols to be fascinating, sending chills down my spine! "D Day Fails" by Stephen Ambrose, on the other hand, didn't do much for me at all, nor did "Funeral in Berlin." In general, I would say that the essays covering earlier periods in human history tend to be better than ones covering more recent history. Possibly this is in part because the later periods have been covered to death. I mean, how many "counterfactuals" on the US Civil War can there be before we get sick of them? But a well-written, tightly-reasoned counterfactual which, based on events hundreds or even thousands of years ago, quite plausibly leads to a result where there is no Judaism, Christianity, or Islam, or Western culture at all, is absolutely fascinating in my opinion. If nothing else, books like "What If?" show how important CHANCE is in human history, as well as the importance of the INDIVIDUAL, as opposed to some Hegelian/Marxist-Leninist historical "inevitability." The bottom line is that it is rare that anything is truly "inevitable", and the aptly titled "What If?" gives us some excellent case studies.
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"What If?" gathers some of the world's foremost military historians to offer hypothetical counterfactuals, including: What If Alexander the Great had died in battle at the age of 21, before he had built an empire? What if the American Revolution had resulted in disaster? What if certain key battles in the American Civil War had changed? This is fun reading as it is always interesting to consider alternative paths not taken or paths unavailable by happenstance.
This book contains a number of excellent examples of counterfactual speculation, with only a few medicore essays. The authors examine how individual actions can have an impact as can the whims of weather.
This is an enjoyable book and, because of the broad area of military history, invites the potential for sequels. For example: One counterfactual I've always wondered about occurred in December of 1814 here in my home town of New Orleans. A prosperous son of Creole planters was awakened by the sound of British troops landing at the back of his plantation. Young Mr. Villere jumped out the window and headed for New Orleans, dodging a shot from a British sentry. Villere arrived in New Orleans and spread the alarm. Gen. Andrew Jackson gathered his forces and launched a surprise attack on the British. The British, unsure of the forces facing them, slowed their advance to give time to consolidate their forces. This gave Jackson time to throw up some defenses on the plains of Chalmette. Within 2 weeks the British had been defeated after suffering enourmous casualties attempting to storm Jackson's fortifications.
But what if the British sentry had not missed young Mr. Villere? Had the British continued their advance it is conceivable that these veterans of the Peninsular campaign could have won the Battle of New Orleans. Today people only remember that the Battle of New Orleans was fought after a peace treaty had been signed. But the treaty had not yet been ratified. Further, in the treaty the British recognized the status of borders prior to the war. But Britain had never recognized the Louisiana purchase, as the Spainish had violated a treaty with Britain when Spain secretly sold Louisiana to France. Britain could have attempted to keep New Orleans. This would have meant a widening of the war. It also begs the following question: Would there have been sufficient British troops to win at Waterloo?
As you can see counterfactual speculation leads to a never ending string of alternative possibilities. But it is enjoyble to speculate, as is "What If?"
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MILITARY HISTORIANS IMAGINE WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN, edited
by Robert Cowley . . . I often speculate about lots of things, and so do the contributors to this book--including Stephen E. Ambrose, John Keegan, David McCollough, and James M. McPherson (to name just a few).
For example, what if:
George Washington had never made his miraculous escape
from the British on Long Island in the early dawn of August 29, 1776?
a Confederate aide hadn't accidentally lost General Robert E. Lee's plans for invading the North?
the Allied invasion on D Day had failed?
These and a whole host of other questions are considered . . . the resultant answers are often fun, but at the same time, sometimes frightening . . . as in, Hitler's case . . . had he not attacked Russia when he did, he might have moved into the Middle East and secured the oil supplies the Third Reich so badly needed, thus helping it retain its power in Europe . . . can you just imagine the present-day implications for that scenario?
If you're a history buff, this is a MUST read . . . but methinks
that others will enjoy it and become much more interested
in the subject as a result . . . I know that I'm now looking
forward to Coweley's follow-up effort, WHAT IF? 2.
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Strauss and Howe apparently have devoted their lives to the study of history and the development of generations in societies. The book is loaded, and I mean, loaded with historical references, some of which I wasn't familiar with until now. By looking at these events, and more importantly, looking at the people that went along with those events, Strauss and Howe noticed some recurring patterns in generations over the centuries. Apply this pattern to our country, and to our future, they have correctly predicted that we are headed for a "Fourth Turning", a time of great criss and peril.
Normally, I shun books that people claim to have "visions of the future" involved with them. They are frequently erroneous and based on the whims of the author. However, "The Fourth Turning" is different. By basing their theories of the future on past events, they offer support and credence to their thoughts. The effect is both enlightening and chilling, but it is one that we simply cannot ignore.
I found every single page of their book fascinating as a study or recent history and future history. Also, I personally found self-enlightenment in reading about the generation in which I belong, the long lost "Gen X" crowd, or the title they label it, "13th". It explains a lot about the world in which I was raised, and the world we live in today.
One chilling fact: this book was written in 1997, and the authors predicts a calamatous and unimaginable event in the early part of the 2000s that would signify the start of the Fourth Turning. Who can read this book and not think of September 11th?
Don't delay. Read this book. We are entering a winter in our times, and those people prepared with that knowledge certainly will have a more steady base in the fourth turning to come.
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List price: $13.00 (that's 20% off!)
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I was pleasantly surprised. Neil Howe and Bill Strauss, with a format capturing my (I confess, I'm a 13er too) peer group's main modes of expression, slick images and reproduced Internet mail messages and chat, counterpointed by an abundance of statistical and historical data, produce a fascinating and ultimately hopeful assessment of an age group that to many "just doesn't fit."
The authors think this is so because of key events in 13ers' early lives--the effect of a long parade of inept leaders, faddish educators and errant parents, a rising information overload and endless elder doomsaying. This, along with the gut-wrenching changes in the US society and economy that were and still are occurring, left them on their own emotionally and physically quite early and socially and economically so as time passed.
Howe and Strauss believe these and related experiences taught 13ers to think pragmatically, act quickly and be ever-resourceful in the face of an often absurd and always overwhelming, fast-moving world. The authors dismiss the mainstream alarmist hype and conclude these and other streetwise skills of 13ers will serve the nation well when it's their turn to "take command" in the next century.
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List price: $14.95 (that's 30% off!)
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Some reviewers who identify themselves as Millennials are very angry about this book. To be blunt, 10 years ago no kid would have given a second thought about its contents. If nothing else, Millennials care what people think about them, and that is massive change.
Second: Any young person who thinks they're radical or rebelling should check out a book like David Frum's How We Got Here: The 1970s. Current generations can't begin to match the radical climate of that time.
Third: It's true that the stats in the book are biased, and reflect the upper-middle class. But this is exactly what happened in the 1960s -- the revolt started with wealthy college students at Ivy League schools and spread to the rest of society over the next 20 years.
Fourth: Howe & Strauss do mention the recent rise in drug use, in particular pot. Their actual claim is that if pot use becomes accepted, it will fill the same role that alcohol did for earlier generations -- just check out a film from the 50s and see them getting smashed at every turn. Not a biggie.
Finally, I should note that this book is very well written. Part of the anger in reviews comes from this source. It gets people excited. If it were a dry statistics text it wouldn't arouse such ire.
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Strauss and Howe's theories seem to have justification, but there are other theories that historians and social scientists have come up with and the authors do not address the validity of these theories very much. One being that a civilization rises to its peak with traditional values and then falls apart gradually by rejecting these traditional values for new gods and liberalism. It would have been interesting to have them react to such a theory. I also thought that by not addressing other theories of civilizational history, it made their some of their comments on the increasing multiculturalization of America seem naive at times. Given the previous theory I have mentioned, such multiculturation of America will cause its decline, not improve it.
This book is one of their more entertaining books that I have read by them. They have sidebar comments from millennials and about millennials that are amusing and interesting much of the time. They also have funny cartoons about millennials throughout the book. This makes the book more interesting than other books of social analysis.
Strauss and Howe say that the millennials will be the next hero generation that may be asked to fight another total war. That may be so, but in a way, I hope not. The more I study history, the more I learn that the wars we fight are usually total rackets and unjustified, no matter how much they are glorified afterwards because our soldiers sacrifice themselves in them. True heroic citizens stay informed and skeptical and make sure that the government is not hoodwinking them into another useless war.
That being said this is still a useful book and I use the authors' theories all the time when analyzing events, social institutions, and the arts and entertainment.
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