1. Performance numbers are often not what they appear to be.
2. Past performance is far less predictive of future performance than generally believed.
3. There are investment strategies that can be used to enhance expected portfolio performance.
In my opinion, no one should include managed futures in a portfolio without this book. And the techniques of measurement and analysis described here set the standard for those who would be Commodity Trading Advisors. I recommend it highly!
List price: $17.00 (that's 30% off!)
List price: $17.00 (that's 30% off!)
A key thing you will learn from these interviews is best exemplified by Mike Carr a Turtle: Don't care what the market will do, Care what you will do when the market does it.
The gem in this series is Warren Eckhardt. In the first book the Ritchie Dennis & Will O'Neil interviews were the real gems. The others in vol#1 were totally without value including the GREAT Ed Seykota who is just a wise-acre with flippant answers and a juvenile sense of humour. Here in volume 2 even minor traders have more to say, perhaps Jack got better in getting information out of them?
Anyhow, remember more than HALF of these people have since gone the way of Livermore and blown up and those that haven't are RETIRED and teach at high costs.
I used to pay a lot of attention to fundamentals. I would spend hours each day looking at news and research to get a feel for the reasoning behind the movement. After doing this for a while, I realized the inherent futility in the approach- if a trade sets up technically I will take it, unless there is some compelling reason not to, and if there is no technical confirmation, I won't take it, period- and so fundamental analysis just doesn't play much of a role in either case. Nowadays, I still keep tabs on fundamentals somewhat, but mainly only to avoid getting hit by a train- not taking action in front of a significant report or going short coffee in the freeze season, stuff like that. Below are a few reasons why my trading has become solidly technical:
1) Most daily news is worthless, and here is why: at any given time, there are half a dozen arguments for being bearish on a market, and half a dozen reasons to be bullish. When a market has a big move up and the reason isn't clear, the news services pick a couple of the bullish reasons and talk about those. If the market has a move down, they highlight some of the bearish reasons. It's total retrofitting, and thus usally a waste of time to read because there's usually not really a way to turn that knowledge into profit. The "traders" that the newsies interview are often just run of the mill clerks or brokers who don't really know anything special- or if they do, they don't tell. The classic filler explanations on the aftermarket newswires are "profit taking," "fund buying" and "fund selling." When you read about one of those three, the general translation is that the reporter dragged out one of the old standards because "who the heck knows" just doesn't make good copy.
2) Many of the best trades are the ones where the move starts before anyone knows why. Bruce Kovner talked about this concept in the first Market Wizards. (Incidentally, Kovner was making 300 million a year in profits at one point, so he might be worth listening to). If a breakout occurs when everyone is expecting it, then everyone is in already, and the odds are not as good because a lot of the buying (or selling) is already done. But if a breakout occurs and no one knows why, then there are (1) potentially powerful hidden reasons for the move, and (2) a whole group of traders who are not in the market yet and may want or need to get in (or out if the move is against them) once the reason comes to light. So, by deduction, if some of the best trades are the ones where the fundamentals reasons are not yet clear, then by paying attention to fundamentals too much, you run the risk of keeping yourself out of the best trades. You have to be willing to say, "I don't know why this setup is occurring, but the technicals are tellling me something that the news might confirm later." Because the news often comes after the window of opportunity has already closed, you often have to be willing to act before the fundamental reasons are clear.
3) Analysts are often biased and have a hesitancy to change views. When an analyst writes down his opinion on a piece of paper and then sends it out for everyone to see, part of his pride and reputation is staked on that opinion. It is a psychological fact that writing something down, and confirming something to other people, makes a person more committed to that belief because humans have a very strong desire to be consistent. That makes him very hesitant to change his mind, even when the facts change. If an analyst is bullish one week and then the facts turn bearish the next week, the analyst should change his mind- but the odds are that he will not, because he will be thinking "well, if i was bullish last week and do a 180 to bearish this week, then I will look stupid." But often that is the right thing to do! Especially for fundamental analysis, being flexible is very important. But most analysts are too worried about their reputations to have that flexibility. This is one reason trends occur, because the masses are hesitant to change their minds even when it is rapidly becoming clear that they should.
4) Much of fundamental analysis is either incomplete or just plain wrong. Even if you have 90% of the puzzle pieces, the 10% that you are missing could be important enough to turn the whole picture upside down. Or if you somehow miraculously have all the pieces, you still have to figure out how to weight them properly and determine what the market is going to pay the most attention to. It is almost impossible to get all the facts correctly uncovered and assembled without overlooking anything. And then there is always the possibility that something could come up by surprise that you were not prepared for. Different analysts with access to the same information will often have directly contradicting opinions on a market. What does that tell you? Generally the only time that the analysts are all on the same page is when the writing on the wall is obvious- and by that time, the move is usually almost done if not over. There is simply no free lunch.
5) Price- the ultimate value judgment of all underlying fundamentals- reveals itself in the technicals. The technicals don't lie and the technicals don't have an emotional bias. They represent the opinions of the entire market, with a heavier weighting towards the bigger and smarter players, and are thus more reliable than individual opinions subject to bias and error. For a fast mover such as myself, this is what needs to be known. I'm interested in the next three days, not the next three months or years.
For the above reasons, fundamental traders caveat emptor.
Mr.Schwager and Mr.Turner have put a very strong mathematical spin on how fundamental analysis can be accomplished. They dissect government trade reports and analyst reports and put an empirical face on the nebulus act of fundamental analysis.
In the preface of the book Mr.Schwager admits that fundamental analysis is not quite accurate. Which begs the question, "why write such a complex book?"
This book is not for the faint of heart, nor is it light reading. It is quite indepth and for the most part above the heads of many beginning futures investors. In order to understand any of the examples you have to have solid trading reference points in your personal trading life.
I recommended it for intermediate traders primarily.
After being involved with futures for 11 years and authoring three books on the subject, I am always impressed at Mr.Schwager thoroughness in researching.
List price: $32.95 (that's 30% off!)
Now, aside from the trading methodology which is well written, there is a lot and I mean a lot of Programming Language in the text. I don't want to take away from the concepts which were great, but if you are not planning on writing a computerized trading program you may want to search elsewhere. On the other hand, if you are working on a "Black Box" trading system, I would highly recommend this text.
List price: $19.95 (that's 30% off!)
I have had the benefit of reading many books on technical analysis and having discussed it with many technicians. From that perspective, I found the book to be a delightful, down-to-earth, nondoctrinaire explanation. But I wouldn't have made it past the first five chapters when I was just getting started with technical analysis.
I graded the book as a one star for beginners and as a five star for intermediates, and that averaged to three stars. Judge accordingly!
Most investors argue strongly in favor of or against price-based analysis. Those who trade a lot usually swear by charts, and those who are long-term investors usually ignore charts. The classic debate is between the "random walkers" who say there ae no patterns in the markets and the chartists. No one has ever proven definitively that charting does or doesn't work for investing. The key problem is nicely stated by the author, " . . . [C]hart analysis is based on general principles, its application depends on individual interpretation."
The book operates on the principle that "[c]hart analysis provides a means of acquiring common sense in trading." The book articulates a variety of reasons why charting can be helpful. I think the best reasons are for helping you explicitly manage the risk you want to take on. This book has a very helpful discussion on that subject.
Before you are done, you will know about different types of charts, trends, trading ranges and their support and resistance levels, chart patterns, oscillators, and how people apply these analytical tools now. The book goes on to show how to apply these tools to trading issues, including what software to use.
My favorite part of the book contained a set of problems to work through using the book. In that section, you can get a feel for charting and your comfort level with it.
The author also explains how trend-following systems can be developed (a fairly conservative use of charting), and provides some useful trading guidelines. These last could have saved many on-line traders a fortune.
So who should learn this material? I would argue that almost no one should. Long-term investors would rarely use it, and can probably rely on fundamental analysis adequately for making entry point decisions. Those who have limited skill in investing should probably be in stock index funds, and do not need this knowledge. Perhaps the best reason to be interested is simply to have a better understanding of the thinking processes that traders use. But that's a human interest application, rather than a financial one.
Some people have compared technical analysis to astrology. After reading the book, you might want to think about that comparison to come to your own conclusions. Certainly, there is no proof offered in this book that these patterns do foretell the future. At least in that element, technical analysis and astrology are similar.
May you always buy low and sell high!
"demystifies technical analysis for beginning investors, clearly explaining such basics as trends, trading ranges, chart patterns, stops, entry, and exit and pyramiding approaches."
Schwager uses the first seven chapters to define many of the technical factors that novice traders should know before they can trade in today's active market. Part One illustrates a wide range of basic technical-analysis tools and how they are (or should be) used. Chart patterns, oscillators, trends and the like are explained concisely with easy-to-follow sample charts. The reader can quickly absorb these basic ideas before moving on to Part Two.
In Part Two, the reader gets his/her first taste of the "how" of technical analysis. The author delves into topics like pyramiding, stop-loss points and exit signs. This is also the part where the author's "Most Important Rule in Chart Analysis" is laid out. Part Two can easily make a reader anxious to start (or get back to) trading.
The third section of Getting Started in Technical Analysis approaches trading systems and software. The author describes the most pertinent options that a trading software package should contain, leaving the legwork to the reader. In the discussion of trading systems, there is no magic formula here, simply guidance to develop and test a trading system of one's own.
Part Four is vital to the trader...novice or otherwise. The author (who is CEO of Wizard Trading) offers practical trading rules and market wisdom.
Getting Started in Technical Analysis is an excellent source of information for the soon-to-be, novice, or expert trader. This book should have a reserved shelf space in every trader's library.
List price: $115.00 (that's 30% off!)
That being said, his book is a great reference tool that gets the average trader to stretch himself mentally and look at the markets in a different way. This book ... can be invaluable for the trader that is simply looking for a new perspective besides simply "flags", "candlesticks", and "elliot waves".
The experience of Schwager helped me a lot. He said he was good in analysis but not trading. Many people, including me, thought Mathematics, Statistics and Economics were essential for good trading. So they went to college, studied hard, got a degree and hope they could make money in the market. This simply never happen! Otherwise everyone should got a PhD before trading. You still need to develop a method or system. But what is vital is to control your ego. Admit mistakes quickly. This was the most interesting and useful conclusion that I got from Schwager.
List price: $15.95 (that's 30% off!)
When I was reading the previous Wizards, I needed to highlight the critical points and there were plenty of them. I also read them over and over. But I did not need to do that this time. You can skip quite a lot of the questions and only read the few that are related to trading. My conclusion is if you can borrow this book from the library then it is still worth reading. If you need to pay for it, buy the previous two books instead.
In any event, this is one of three books by Schwager which have been highly praised by others. (I plan to review the other two, Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards, in the near future.) In it, he provides introductory comments on and then interviews of 15 stock market "wizards." For each, he offers clever as well as relevant phrases which differentiate them. For example, for Stuart Walton ("Back from the Abyss"), Mark D. Cook ("Harvesting S&P Profits"), Mark Minervini ("Stock Around the Clock"), and Claudio Guazzoni ("Eliminating the Downside"). Revealingly, although the 15 stock traders have significantly different perspectives on investment and (sometimes reluctantly) divulge different strategies, they seem to share certain common beliefs which Schwager characterizes as "Wizard Lessons." They include:
1. There is no single "truth."
2. Her or his trading style must be appropriate to each trader's personality.
3. Perseverance usually separates "winners" from "losers."
4. Great traders are flexible and resilient.
5. It takes time (probably many years) for a trader to succeed.
6. It is imperative to formulate a trading philosophy which integrates market concepts and trading methods.
7. Every great trader has a specific "edge." (What are your answers to the questions listed on page 301?)
8. Great traders develop and then sustain a high level of self-confidence.
9. Successful trading requires a FULL-TIME commitment.
10. Market "wizards" are bold and innovative but not reckless and impulsive.
11. They are willing to accept a loss while rigorously controlling risk.
12. They may view undervaluation as a necessary condition for purchasing a stock but never as a sufficient condition.
13. Their transactions are guided and informed by a trading model based on catalysts.
14. Market "wizards" pay at least as much attention to "when to get out" as they do to "when to get in"
15. Market "wizards" know themselves (warts and all), work very hard, trust their own judgment, constantly review/evaluate decisions, and are patient.
For about the cost of a breakfast at a restaurant in the Wall Street area, Schwager introduces his reader to 15 immensely successful stock traders and then allows the reader to "eavesdrop" on in-depth interviews of them. Schwager also helps his reader to compare and contrast their mindsets, strategies, and convictions. A value-added benefit is the provision an Appendix in which Schwager discusses "Options: Understanding the Basics." For novice investors, this book is an invaluable source of wisdom on HOW NOT TO THINK and WHAT NOT TO DO.
I presume to suggest that there is another audience for this book which Schwager may not have had in mind when writing it. I refer to those who are now involved in start-up preparations or who have already launched a new company. Whether or not an IPO is one of their objectives, they can learn a great deal of value from the "Stock Market Wizards" in terms of allocation of resources (especially human capital), "early-warning signs", and crisis management. To them I also highly recommend Rob Ryan's Entrepreneur America.
In this latest publication, Schwager's wizards are essentially all managers of exclusive funds. Thumbing through the book initially, that frustrated and annoyed me. How is the small, private trader going to be able to identify with these mega successful businessmen and women? Much to my relief, Schwager bridged that gap in masterful ways by 1) enlightening the reader to bits (never flagrant) of their personal lives and characters, 2) the essence of their systems, if he could get that out of them, if not - their discipline, or other successful tactics and "edge" and 3) zeroing in on each wizard's strengths and transposing them to the basic skills or knowledge that any trader could incorporate or should possess. We see through Schwager's eyes that these wizards are real people, with the same vulnerabilities and weaknesses that we all battle. Yet, obviously, these are special traders who have mastered their craft through common sense, dedication, self-confidence and self -discipline.
As a female trader, I'm always looking for "The Great One" in the form of another female trader to look to as a role model. Unfortunately, Schwager is apparently unable to find a woman, with the exception of Linda Raschke in the previous Wizard book, who emulates the qualities / skills of a wizard. One woman, Dana Galante, was included but seemingly more so for the uniqueness of a sole short selling method of trading. There is no doubt that she is great at her job but for her, it appears that she sees trading as just a job, not an identity. That's fine and great but I would have liked to have seen a woman with the same drive and passion for trading, say as Mark Minervini.
Additionally, I found it a delightful surprise that Schwager included an MD who serves as a trading psychologist. The psychology of trading is every bit as important to one's success as is their knowledge and financial abilities to participate in the markets. With the stock market serving as the number one spectator sport these days, it is only appropriate that proper psychological help and counseling/support be available to and embraced by a nation of traders/investors.
Finally, as in every Schwager book I've ever read, he summarizes key concepts at the conclusion of the book. These are invaluable pearls of wisdom all gleaned from what are undoubtedly huge volumes of notes and memoirs of so many correspondences with highly successful traders.
Get the book. Get all three - they're a great testament to the evolution of trading wisdom achieved in these modern times.
Thank-you, once again Jack Schwager.