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Rohwer (Berkeley MA in Economics, Harvard JD), who was an investment banker with CSFB in Hong Kong, brought a unique set of qualifications to his research. Some people criticized Rohwer for failing to predict the Asian economic crisis in 1998. (One book has the title: "Asia Falling".) But he did, on page 18: "My guess in that, around 2000, Asia's economic growth will suddenly slow down." This book was first published in 1995, so he saw it coming - even though his timing wasn't perfect. The fact that he made such a prediction, contrary to the tone and theme of his own book, is suggestive. Rohwer was prophetic.
Rohwer's sequel: "Remade in America" is just as good. Writing at the height of America's boom, he saw America's slowdown coming, and went on to suggest continuing strength in China's growth. Nothing has happened so far to contradict anything Rohwer wrote. At $6 trillion China is, according to the CIA World Factbook, the world's second largest economy and 13% of the world's total (Gross World Product: $47 in PPP), an economic giant which is expanding much faster than any major economy in the world - including India's. China is anything but "a modest country at best." (Bill Emmott)
Other books I also recommend include "Thunder from the East" by Nicholas Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn. This couple won the Pulitzer Prize for the NY Times for their China reporting, and their CVs are sterling. "The Rise of China" by William Overholt (Harvard BA, Yale PhD), a former banker at Bankers Trust in Hong Kong, is slightly dated, but shows the brillant judgment of the author. "China's Economic Transformation" by Professor Gregory Chow, Princeton University's former chief of econometrics, brings Chow's specialist quantitative skills to bear on an authoritative analysis of China's economy. All these authors would no doubt support Rohwer's findings and applaud his outstanding research. I myself can't praise Rohwer enough.
The author's humility is endearing, but I am compelled to share my enthusiasm for this book in glowing terms.
Asia Rising is far and away the best economics book I have ever read. The author is a journalist, and he quite happily combines anecdotes and quantitative analysis to present a compelling story of wealth creation.
Although the book covers a lot of ground, the theme of the virtue of free markets and the mischief of big government recurs frequently. The author points out the paradox (to Westerners) of how authoritarian regimes in Asia have in a single generation lifted hundreds of millions of Asians out of poverty, while more democratic and socialist governments have created a legacy of depravation. The comparisons between China and India are the most poignant. A few quotes:
"How can it possibly have happened that...China's authoritarian government has delivered far greater benefits to the average Chinese than India's fairly stable and democratically elected governments have delivered to the average Indian? The short answer is ...China's government has followed policies which, because they rely on...markets to set prices and allocate resources, spread the benefits of economic growth pretty widely through society. In India, by contrast, ...rulers have acted almost entirely at the behest of...the better off." (pg. 173)
"After 1978, China grew by letting competition flourish; before 1991, India tried to grow by eliminating as much of it as possible because it was "wasteful"." (pg. 177)
"For almost thirty years Taiwan and Sourth Korea were run by rather nasty military dicatatorships. Yet there, and in Hong Kong and Singapore too, the authoritarian approach was not only more efficient economically than democratic decision making; it proved to be more egalitarian as well-for the simple reason that it is the rare lobby in a democracy that wins government benfits for the poor rather than the previileged." (pg. 326).
The book is such a page turner, I was dreading finishing it. It is a tour-de-force, with thought provoking content dealing with politics, culture, policy, family life, and many other topics. I found myself pausing frequently to reflect on my own life, my values, and the society I live in. In this sense "Asia Rising" is a great book, not just a great economics book.
I recommend this book and his previous book as antidote to Bill Emmott's "20:21". Both worked at the Economist, coming to different conclusions about China. If you haven't read either book, I'd only point out that not only did Rohwer have a much better resume, he was far more articulate and realistic in his facts, figures, and views than the contrarian Emmott, who seems to have forgotten Henri Poincare's admonition: "To be credulous and cynical about everything are both wrong - they dispense with the need to think."
Rohwer (Berkeley MA in Economics, Harvard JD), who was an investment banker with CSFB in Hong Kong, brought a unique set of qualifications to his research. Some people criticized Rohwer for failing to predict the Asian economic crisis in 1998. (One book has the title: "Asia Falling".) But he did, on page 18: "My guess in that, around 2000, Asia's economic growth will suddenly slow down." This book was first published in 1995, so he saw it coming - even though his timing wasn't perfect. The fact that he made such a prediction, contrary to the tone and theme of his own book, is suggestive. Rohwer was prophetic.
Rohwer's sequel: "Remade in America" is just as good. Writing at the height of America's boom, he saw America's slowdown coming, and went on to suggest continuing strength in China's growth. Nothing has happened so far to contradict anything Rohwer wrote.
Other books I also recommend include "Thunder from the East" by Nicholas Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn. This couple won the Pulitzer Prize for the NY Times for their China reporting, and their CVs are sterling. "The Rise of China" by William Overholt (Harvard BA, Yale PhD), a former banker at Bankers Trust in Hong Kong, is slightly dated, but shows the brilliant judgment of the author. "China's Economic Transformation" by Professor Gregory Chow, Princeton University's former chief of econometrics, brings Chow's specialist quantitative skills to bear on an authoritative analysis of China's economy. All these authors would no doubt support Rohwer's findings and applaud his outstanding research. I myself can't praise Rohwer enough.