Lichtman provides, with the Keys to the White House forecasting system, a novel approach to the obscure academic exercise of predicting presidential elections. Ignoring the polls, working sometimes years in advance, it's possible to determine whether the party in the White House will hold or lose it in the coming election. Lichtman achieves this by developing his theory of governance into a set of thirteen "keys" or key factors that will determine the upcoming contest. From the ease of the governing party's primary campaign, to the pulse of the economy, to the foreign policy failures and successes, he applies an historian's eye to current events and lines up the keys. While the system is certainly open to debate, particularly on some of the more subjective keys, the more important point is what it tells us about how and why we choose our presidents. Some of the answers that the keys suggest are surprising. Certainly, the theory of governance diminishes the importance of the media blitz, the opinion poll, and the rough and tumble of everyday politics -- and some political junkies may not like that. But the message of performance is intriguing and should offer new insights to even the most jaded policy wonk.

Is it possible to have a system of predicting the election of a president, months or even years before Election Day? According to one political historian, yes, there is a way. In fact, it's a "guaranteed" prediction. Historian Allan J. Lichtman has devised a system of thirteen keys that predicts the outcome of elections. The Keys consider such things as the economy, social unrest, scandal, candidate charisma, etc. Since 1981, his forecasting system has never been wrong and, when applied retroactively, they correctly pick every presidential election since the Civil War. Lichtman's book, The Keys to the White House -- 1996 is an important historical/political work. Rather than an over reliance on economic theory, which basically says that if the economy is strong the incumbent wins reelection, Lichtman's keys are historically based, not based solely on the economy or on polls or campaign strategy. The turning of a key is based on historical precedent from past elections. Readers interested in presidential election theory will find Lichtman's book fascinating. According to the book, if the incumbent holds 8 of the 13 keys they will win, regardless of what polls or pundits say. In fact, Lichtman is basically saying that campaigns don't really matter, it's what happens before the campaign that counts. Readers looking for other works related to this topic should read Forecasting Elections by Michael Lewis Beck and Tom Rice or Forecasting Presidential Elections by Steven Rosenstone. The Keys is a must read for anyone interested in political history. Are you trying to predict who will win in 2000? - the Keys will tell you. Only time will tell whether The Keys to the White House is a surefire guide to predicting the next president, but so far, they have a perfect record.

Is it possible to know the results of a presidential elections months, even a year or two, in advance? According to these authors, the answer is "yes" and their method is revealed in this book. The Thirteen Keys are a simple list of qualifications that the incumbent party must meet to retain control of the White House. If the incumbent party loses six or more keys, its candidate is destined for defeat in November. The authors have credibility because their book illustrates how the keys have worked in every election since the Civil War. They predicted George Bush's victory in the early spring when Michael Dukakis held a double-digit lead in the polls. They foresaw the electoral strength and resiliency of Bill Clinton. What makes the Thirteen Keys especially intriguing is that they make media strategies, electoral college maps, and vice-presidential picks irrelevant. In making each election a referendum on the past four years, the keys not only confirm common sense, they also redeem the integrity of the regular voter. Ronald Reagan didn't win in 1980 or earn re-election because of his acting skills. Nor could George Bush have been saved in 1992 by a superior campaign. The message of the keys is: "Performance counts." Looking ahead to 2000 has to bring a smile to Democrats. Using the keys, it is hard to envision a scenario other than a Gore victory in November. Whether that's good news or bad news is up to the reader.