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MYCROFT
Rather than just seeking value, Fisher realized that even a greatly "undervalued" company could prove a horrible investment. Sure, you might occasionally buy a stock for less than the company's cash-in-the-bank (back then, at least!). But what if the business is horribly run? It might not take long for the company to lose all that cash!
Even if the company returns to "fair" value, that ends the potential profit from investing in such a business. Holding an average company, because it was once undervalued, but is no more, makes little sense.
Fisher points out that the largest wealth via investing has been made in one of two ways. First, buying stocks when the markets crash and holding them until the markets recover. Secondly, with less risk and more potential return, you can also just invest in a small portfolio of companies which continue to strongly grow sales and earnings over the years. Then, if the company was correctly selected, you might never have to sell, while accruing a huge return on your initial investment.
Fisher pioneered the school of growth stock investing. In Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Fisher explains how he selects a growth company. He lists fifteen points which a company must have to be considered a superior investment.
Fisher's first point seems obvious: "Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizeable increase in sales for at least several years?"
Fisher shows that some companies might have potential substantial sales increases for only a few years, but after that have limited potential due to some factor, such as market saturation. For example, Fisher mentions the growth in sales of TV's until the U.S. market was saturated.
He also wisely suggests looking behind the products to seek other superior investments. While many TV manufacturers were competitive and it was difficult to tell which was best, Fisher points out that Corning Glass Works was, by far, the company most capable of producing the glass bulbs used in TVs.
Fisher tries to clearly distinguish between companies which are "fortunate and able" and those which are "fortunate because they are able." The second kind, the superior investments, are highly innovative and create new products which have growth potential. Fisher uses Dow Chemical as one example of a "fortunate because they are able" company.
The second point wants to know if management has the drive to innovate new products. A man ahead of his time, Fisher wonders about how much of a company's future sales might come from products not yet invented.
A constant theme of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits is examining what the company is doing to prepare for the future. Is the company spending wisely on Research and Development? Or, is the company just trying to maximize its current profit and reinvesting nothing for future growth?
Fisher explains why answering that question is difficult in practice. What different companies account for under R&D is one problem. Another is that some companies are more successful than others at turning money spent on R&D into future marketable products. Today, we must assume this question is far more difficult to answer!
In addition to questioning a company's R&D, Fisher wants to see a company with a strong sales organization and distribution efficiency. "It is the making of a sale that is the most basic single activity of any business," he writes.
Yet, why don't investors focus upon such key factors instrumental to a company's future growth? Fisher points out that certain issues are not quantifiable. That is why many investors tend to focus upon financial issues which can be expressed in a simple ratio.
How does the investor go about answering the "unquantifiable"? How does the investor know how well-managed the company is? Or, how does one evaluate the people factors, which Fisher says are the real strength of a superior growth company?
Fisher suggests the "scuttlebutt" method. This involves talking to suppliers, customers, company employees, and people knowledgeable in the industry, and, eventually, company management. From this information, an investor can get a good feel for the quality of the company as a growth investment. Fisher teaches us how to learn to ask the correct, company-specific questions.
Fisher acknowledges the "scuttlebutt" method is a lot of work. But, he asks, should it be easy to find such great companies, when finding only a few can easily lay the foundation for building huge future wealth?
I tend to think the average individual investor will not use the "scuttlebutt" method. And, for most investors and most companies, even if the investor had the desire to use this method, it would not be practical.
Yet, for investors seeking to make investments in smaller, local companies, the "scuttlebutt" method might be of value. For angel investors or mini-venture capitalists, reading "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" is probably also worthwhile.
The book also has some excellent thoughts about buying-and-holding a stock and when to sell a stock. Fisher's thoughts on diversification are also well worth reading, although I would recommend more diversification than Fisher claims is adequate.
Overall, this is a great book for the individual investor. You will not be able to follow the "scuttlebutt" method in practice, for most investments, and, maybe, the complexity of today's companies and scientific research in many growth companies make Fisher's method less practical today than in the past, but there is much to learn about business and investing from this book.
Peter Hupalo, Author of "Becoming An Investor: Building Wealth By Investing In Stocks, Bonds, And Mutual Funds"
This book contains good information, but the best bargain is to buy just the one book.
There have been two prominent pioneers in the growth-investing field from its beginnings in the 1950s, T. Rowe Price and Philip A. Fisher. However, to my knowledge, Price did not write publicly about his methods. Fisher has, in an excellent manner.
Fisher interestingly commends the alternative school of investment, value investing, personified by Benjamin O. Graham. I think Fisher makes a good case that an excellent growth investor can achieve better results under the right conditions than an excellent value investor (Fisher quotes Shakespeare: "There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune"). By definition, Fisher suggests that there can be few truly great growth investors in the universe at any one time, because [p. 30] "companies with truly unusual prospects for appreciation are quite hard to find for there are not too many of them." Fisher's work also gives the impression that growth investors need to operate at a particularly high-Watt level of intensity that perhaps few can match. In fact, it seems that growth investors often need to know more about an industry's and company's prospects than the CEOs themselves.
For those that are thinking of picking up Fisher's methodology and storming into the world of growth stocks, let me offer a few words of caution. First, Fisher valued highly the honesty of the managements that he quizzed about their firms' prospects: [p.17] "...the kind of honesty that caused [the company manager] not to conceal repeated bad news that could not fail to be embarrassing for him to tell. He saw to it that those interested in his company understood all the unfavorable aspects of what was happening, and not just the favorable potentials." In our age where most corporate managements are "control freaks" about their company images, true honesty seems hard to find. Secondly, during the first half of Fisher's career, particularly in the 1950s, there existed a whole class of institutional investors who as a matter of policy did not invest in growth stocks. As they said of Motorola in those days, [p.18] "...this was not the type of company on which they spent time; therefore they had no opinion of it." This is not true in our day. Millions of investors, large and small, are looking for great growth companies. To the extent that you find one, it may be too richly priced for your portfolio's health.
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It is no wonder that (on his website - ...) that he now sells bottles of "kabbalistic water" which have been "blessed" by Berg.
This book is shallow and has nothing to offer.
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Four people give comments on Thompson's main text but two of them are't even philosophers (I think they are from English departments!??). Nussbaum's comments interesting though.
Some of Thompson's articles on these topics are a bit better than this book. I'd recommend checking them out first.
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Fisher's thesis is that American democratic and technological society presents us all with a level playing field. Apparently the speed of technological change makes us immigrants of us all, since every generation is presented with a new world, a new set of challenges. Apparently, again, we all have equal access to this new world; we can all make use of it to the same degree and profit from it en masse.
Fisher goes further to celebrate the sameness of American culture--claiming that suburbs from Boston to LA are all essentially the same: people live in the same houses, drive the same cars, buy the same products, watch the same shows on TV, eat the same food. This isn't a problem for Fisher, but is instead something to be celebrated as the triumph of a Cartesian democratic space.
I would suggest that Fisher has been closeted within Harvard Yard for too long. It seems flippant at best, arrogant and ignorant at worst, to suggest that we're all immigrants and have access to the same opportunities. Would Mr. Fisher care to think about being a non-white immigrant into this country he might realize that all immigrants are not equal. To claim that being faced with new technologies is kin to being an immigrant to the country is implausible, as if being unable to set the VCR is as serious a problem as facing a prejudiced and often racist immigration process.
He glosses over the detrimental effects of the sameness of American culture (even as he overstates that sameness). Large, multi-national corporations and chain stores have ruined small businesses nationwide, and the goods that we are fortunate enough to buy in most of this country are made at the expense of people in other countries or poorer regions of this one.
To suggest that all suburbs are the same is ludicrous: even without leaving the Boston area Fisher should compare Cambridge to some of Boston's poorer working class neighborhoods.
Fisher celebrates America's greatness, but in fact he's performing a dangerous sleight of hand, ignoring many of the social problems that we're facing.
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