Read this book. It will change your life.
List price: $14.95 (that's 30% off!)
Of Course you may not agree with everything he says, which he acknowledges, but the primary concern of reducing the size and scope of government, allowing us to make our own decisions, is something he says we all can agree on.
Though many of the same arguments can be found in 'Why Government Doesn't Work", there is also a host of new information such as Mr. Browne's budget plan, should he be elected, and new and updated material on the "issues" that have dominated this political season.
A quick and easy read for those new to Libertarianism and an excellent refresher/motivator for those already familiar.
In his bid for the Presidency of the United States, he has been ignored by the mainstream media that caters to the pro-government Bush and Gore syndicate. In "The Great Libertarian Offer," Mr. Browne offers countless examples of the federal government's failure to keep promises and the resulting chaos of failed federal programs. After identifying the problems with government, he lists examples of tried free-market solutions that have brought prosperity and freedom to citizens worldwide.
Mr. Browne offers a logical and workable solution to problems that most politicians just ignore or sugar-coat. The great part about this book (and libertarianism) is the fact that this solution is very simple: get the federal government out of our lives.
While exploring this book, readers will pleasantly discover that Libertarian ideas mirror the ideas of our country's founders - ideas of liberty, privatization, and individual responsibility.
Here is a book that may well change the world. Have you ever read a book that is so good that you immediately bought several copies to give away. I haven't---until I read Harry Browne's The Great Libertarian Offer. I just bought five more copies from Amazon, and expect to buy more later.
It's the BEST introduction to economics ever written. I've owned a copy since the early 70's when I was in high school, and I've never beeen fooled by politician's promises ever since.
I've read it several times. Much of the rest of the book is dated so doesn't need to be republished.
If Harry would republish and widely distribute the first 78 pages or so of this book to all high school and college students, the politicians would have a much more difficult time fooling voters with their schemes.
Browne's attention to details and a well throughout plans on how to fix Social Security, reduce the deficit, and eliminate federal tax and makes the government smaller and smarter is a real pleasure to read. While I think that they might be a little ambitious, I also think they are achievable.
The book shows how social programs started out with the best of intentions and have become and overburden to society. Browne's how the government has and is failing in so many areas and they ways we need to go about changing them in order to make a brighter future for everyone.
Browne conveys all of these ideas, once again proving that without the government we can save money. I must admit, I was a little skeptical about this book, but Harry Browne has convinced me that things can be brighter with a little work - well done!
List price: $24.95 (that's 30% off!)
Browne has written a book that should be on the best sellers list. This is more than self-help book, this is a life-changing book. You can find books on financial freedom, but this book shows you how to be free and independent without losing any freedoms along the way.
The book is broken down into three parts, Why you are not free, How you can be free and A new Life. Browne presentation is easy to follow and comprehend, you'll have to spend some time practicing the technique to prefect it.
I liked the book's overall message, its simple, straightforward and motivating. I found that this book, unlike so many others allows me to make the choices I think are necessary to change my life. Harry Browne has certainly done himself proud with this book. An excellent piece of writing for all to read!
BUY THIS BOOK. Except for Libertarians, freedom is a concept largely ingored these days, most likely because freedom involves responsibility--for yourself--what a concept! READ THIS BOOK. Browne doesn't let anybody off the hook. GIVE THIS BOOK AWAY. Then people won't wonder how you can be so self assured and still be a nice person. You'll be an enigma! And there aren't nearly enough of us enigmas out here....
List price: $11.95 (that's 20% off!)
That being said, this book is basically the Cliff notes to his 1987, 550plus page tome entitled "Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong". I had been hesitating in breaking up my nest egg into the specifications of the "Permanent Portfolio", so I ordered this book in order to have an update of his methods.
As you may know the Permanent Portfolio is broken into 25%Gold, 25%Cash, 25% Stocks, and 25% bonds. The book quotes 10% rate of return, but specifics about how he derives those numbers weren't too clear... Strangely, I wan't able to find any quotes/charts on the Motley Fool website (or anywhere else on a cursory Google search) so, I took out a piece of paper, went through the data available to a layman like myself on the prices of Gold, T-bills, Bonds, and Stocks (from index funds) in the 25% breakdown spelled out in the book. The verdict? Well, at the end of the period from 1993-2002, if you had invested 4K in an SP 500 index fund, you'd still be 19% ahead of where you started (peak was 88% two years ago). If you had invested in 5% CD compounded yearly, you'd be 55% ahead of the initial investment.
And, if you had a Permanent Portfolio, reorganized as directed every year, you'd be negative 21%...That's right. A ...investment was now worth [money].
I admit maybe I somehow made a mistake in my calculations... but I followed his instructions pretty closely in my calculations reaching back in the 9yr time frame. I arranged the research portfolio as I would have if my money had been riding on it. I also think if the performance of the Permanent Portfolio was better, I'd be able to find some kind of quote by a 3rd party.
In Mr Browne's defense, if you closely read the first half of his book, Rule #5 recommends the reader to beware of the "experts"...I suppose that may be his subconsious way to offset the guilt of making the sort of recommendations which may ultimately cost his readers thousands of dollars.
But don't take my anonymous word for it. Go back a few years and do a test Portfolio to see if you do better. As for myself, I'm convinced that I'd be better off hiding it all in my matress.
Speaking of his seventeen rules, the first five can be condensed into one simple rule: Forecasting = Fortune Telling. From Browne, we learn that no one can predict the future, yet many of us entrust our hard-earned money without any hesitation to modern day Gypsies- financial planners, emoneyf (mutual fund) managers and stockbrokers, who constantly tell us that they can predict the future using sophisticated eeconometricf forecasting tools. Browne reminds us that our wealth begins with what we earn, not with what we invest, and before we can invest, we have to earn. Although we can always borrow our way to bankruptcy with ease, we can borrow our way to prosperity only in our dreams. In the end, basing our earnings won through blood and sweat on the elaborate crystal-ball gazing of financial witch-doctors is the surest path to losses and total ruin.
Browne also delivers plain talk on risk, investment and speculation, and tells the reader that no one can ever hope to eliminate risk entirely. The best anyone can do is to develop realistic strategies for dealing with risk. As such, it becomes painfully clear that there is no such thing as a risk-free investment. This even includes for example so-called erisk-freef US Government Securities backed merely by the full faith and credit of the United States Government (I personally wonft think any less of the reader who laughs at that last sentence). Who knows what the future holds, and just because the worst-case scenario- a default or bankruptcy, has never happened does not necessarily mean that it can not happen tomorrow. In keeping with this, his thirteenth rule exhorts us to keep some assets outside of our native country, and is a brilliant touch. I had to laugh when I read the various calamities- natural and unnatural, which could befall our investments in our native country. However, one should keep in mind that such calamities can occur in ANY country. Also, holding some assets outside the US may not provide the secrecy or safety Browne says it will impart, simply because of the inter-connectedness of the global economy and the incredibly long reach of the US government.
At no point does the book let the reader off of the hook. We ultimately bear the responsibility for our investment decisions, and Mr. Browne is absolutely right when he says to never assume that what you have earned today can be easily earned tomorrow. Throughout the book, Mr. Browne wants to remind the reader of three things. First, it is hard to earn a dollar, yet even in the face of this generally accepted truism, there are those who want you to believe that you can get rich quick simply by making bets based on their uninformed, though highly elaborate, predictions about unpredictable events. Second, you know more than the so-called eexpertsf want you to think you know. The experts want you to disregard your common sense and put your trust in their opinion. Third, in the world of investing, what goes up eventually comes down, and even more important, what goes down does not necessarily have to go back up. As Browne pointedly remarks over and over again, in the world of investing, nothing is supposed to happen, and anything can happen. As such, the last five of his seventeen rules can be summarized as: Sophisticated = Stupid and Simple = Smart.
Finally, for those of us, including myself, who feel as if they have missed out on the Greatest Bull Market of All Time, fear not, for there will be other opportunities. After all, the last Greatest Bull Market of All Time occurred just before the Great Crash of 1929. As Browne tells the reader at the end of the book, you are not a failure if you missed the boat. To this I must add: You are not a failure if you missed the boat- especially if the boat was the Titanic! I think there are a lot of bruised and broken investors from the New Era Internet Boom (and subsequent Bust) that will wholeheartedly agree with me, as the last six years have been their figurative Titanic. These individuals especially need to read, and re-read this book as they invest going forward.
Bringing Las Vegas to a living room near you!
If the book had stopped with raising the question about how to invest so that you had financial security, and exposed all the risks as it does, it would have been a five-star book.
If the book had only looked at the importance of assuming that the future is unpredictable, and discussed alternatives about how to reduce the risk of that unpredictability, it would have been a five-star book.
Where the book gets into trouble, is that it offers unqualified recommendations that will get you into financial trouble. I graded the book down two stars for this problem.
The book argues that you focus on your day job (your career) as task one. Very few people will ever get to the point where investments replace earned or operating business income. Most financial books skip over this very important point.
Further, the book makes the important distinction between money that you should not take risks with and money that you can afford to lose. And it reiterates that distinction often and effectively. The money you plan to retire on is money with which you should not take much risk, and the money you have saved above that you can try other things with.
I particularly admired the many ways Mr. Browne documents the likelihood that any way you learn about to "beat the market" will soon do very poorly. Although this will not be enough to discourage the inexperienced from avoiding "taking a flyer," certain lessons can only be learned the hard way by most people.
So what's the real problem with investing? Prices fluctuate . . . a lot. These fluctuations cause investors to do the wrong things. They buy high and sell low. Ouch!
Mr. Browne's solution is to put together a portfolio that will protect you against the downside circumstances of high inflation, deflation, prosperity, and deflation. Although he doesn't say it, he wants your investments to be steadier in value so you won't be tempted to buy high and sell low.
Here is where the thinking gets a little dicey. How much downside risk you need to protect against depends solely on two things: the likelihood that you will sell at the wrong time and how long you will hold the asset. So the solution will tend to differ for each person. And I'm not quite sure how anyone assesses anyone's emotional tendency to buy and sell at the wrong time.
So let's shift focus. How can you avoid taking a ride downward? In nominal terms, that's not too hard. Stay in cash. You will always get some return, and if you are holding government short-term securities (like Treasury bills) or are in a government-insured savings account, there is little risk of losing your principal. For example, in tax deferred accounts, the returns on cash now are well above inflation. So in some environments, you won't even lose buying power.
So if you are close to retirement (or needing the money), it makes sense to be almost totally or totally in cash.
If you are 20 years old, the question turns around. Over a period of 40-50 years, cash will probably earn you a lower return than any other investment you can make. But can you handle the volatility? You should probably assume that you cannot handle the volatility. So you should have a fair amount of cash too in your "investment" rather than your "speculative" funds.
But you can handle that risk, too, in another way. You can save more money than you need to retire on (or for your children's education or whatever). Then the volatility will only take you down towards the minimum sums you need to have, not take you below your targets. If this approach feels comfortable to you, it is a better solution. You will earn more money and have less lifetime risk.
There are quite a few areas where I have problems with his advice. They are too numerous to outline here, but I will mention a few:
He ideally wants you to own 25 percent of your portfolio in gold in Austria or Switzerland. First, if you are over 60, I think that's very risky. If the value of that gold goes down, you've just lost. You won't probably hold it long enough to make the loss back. Second, you will increase the chances of being audited by the IRS if you honestly declare that you have a foreign bank account. Third, you will have violated the law if you do not. Fourth, what if you and your spouse die in a car accident? Are your heirs going to find that gold? Do you really need these problems?
He also encourages you to have your money in stock mutual funds and to select three for diversification. But he doesn't give you the information you need to do that well. See John Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds for help with that issue.
Finally, he recommends people you can implement that strategy with. Be skeptical of any author who presents "trustworthy" people for you to work with. There are many, many ways this advice can represent conflicts of interest, overt or sub rosa.
If a salesman told you you could have "fail-safe" results and only need to spend 30 minutes a year to do so, would you believe her or him? Where else should you be skeptical about the specifics of advice you receive.
Think through how to "emotion-reduce" and "risk-reduce" your investing!