I must confess that I read this book with the intention of sharpening my trading skill. I was attracted by the example quoted from this book in a trading book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life -- by Nassim Nicholas Taleb". Definitely I had made a wrong inference.

To me, this book is quite academic. Out of the ten chapters I only found the first and the tenth interesting, with both comprised mainly of life examples and paradoxes. Unless you are really interested in the topic "Probability" in an academic or mathematics sense, this might not be suitable for you.

This book is a mixture of mathematical history and basic statistics and probability with examples of their use. Bennett writes lucidly and succinctly. I would have liked to see some topics, such as paradoxes of probability (e.g. the Simpson's paradox) explained in greater detail. Sometimes the book tackles a topic very briefly and then drops it rather abruptly. As a result, it may be difficult to grasp the importance of a topic and to see the connection between topics. All in all, however, the book is a very good reference manual for a beginner. This is essentially a handy long encyclopedia article on a fascinating and important subject.

In writing this beginner's guide to randomness, the author assumes that the reader's understanding of the concepts underlying statistics and probability is somewhat shaky as misconceptions abound, and certain concepts are particularly problematic. The author has, therefore, used lucid, expressive and entertaining language to clear up our misconceptions about this intrinsically fascinating branch of mathematics.

Used for seeking divine direction, decision-making and games, the practice of chance mechanisms have been discovered throughout Mesopotamia, the Indus valley, Egypt, Greece and the Roman Empire. Yet, probability was not seriously studied until the mid-17th century. Historians have long wondered why conceptual progress in this field was so slow, given that humans have encountered chance repeatedly from earliest times.

The answer lies in the difficulty of understanding randomness. Probability is based on the concept of a random event, and statistical inference is based on the distribution of random samples. Often, we assume that the concept of randomness is obvious. Yet, problems having to do with chance typically appear simple and amenable to solution with natural good sense, only to be proven otherwise. Over the course of 10 chapters, this book investigates a series of ideas central to the historical development of probabilistic thinking.

This book is highly recommended to anyone who is a total beginner when it comes to probability as it not only elucidates the reader on the subject, but also explains why probability is often counter-intuitive and hence desperately puzzling. Despite its abstruse nature, probability is a very useful tool and this book shows how it can be used to good effect. Filled with historical asides, this handy, pocket-sized book will clear up your misconceptions. Despite its easy-going conversational style, it is a thorough academic work with 50 pages of references, bibliography and the index.

Deborah J. Bennett (1950- ) is assistant professor of mathematics at Jersey City State College, New Jersey.

See also my review of: WHY FLIP A COIN? The Art and Science of Good Decisions H.W. Lewis John Wiley & Sons, Inc., August 1998 ISBN: 0-471-29645-7, Paperback, US$14.95, 206 pages